国泰海通｜固收：转债或迎供需错配牛

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the convertible bond market may enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatch, with demand driven by a low interest rate environment and the current convertible bond dual-low strategy outperforming common benchmarks like the Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index, potentially attracting new public funds after regulatory changes [1] - On the supply side, historical experiences from Japan in the 1990s indicate that a surge in credit bond issuance and a decrease in convertible bond issuance may create a crowding-out effect for convertible bonds [1] - Since the end of 2024, the risk appetite in the convertible bond market has been on the rise, with the initial phase of a bull market characterized by an increase in low-risk appetite, transitioning to a high-risk appetite, similar to the style rotation seen in the stock market [1]