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国泰海通|宏观:出口反弹,内需分化
国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-25 13:39

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a period of tariff easing, leading to a rebound in exports while domestic demand shows increasing divergence [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a mixed performance in consumption, with strong automobile sales [1] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating, while real estate sales show marginal improvement amidst a sluggish land market [1] - Exports are rebounding rapidly, supported by resilient overseas demand, with port data and export freight rates rising quickly due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] Group 3 - Production is exhibiting a trend of industry divergence, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and there is an accelerated reduction in steel inventories [1] Group 4 - Price performance is generally subdued, with most high-frequency indicators related to CPI and PPI showing a downward trend [1] - In terms of liquidity, the US dollar index has significantly declined, while the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate [1]