国泰海通｜海外策略：贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and long-term nature of the China-U.S. trade friction from 2018 to 2019, highlighting its significant impact on asset prices and the sensitivity of markets to trade-related signals [1][3]. Summary by Sections Trade Friction Overview - The China-U.S. trade friction lasted nearly two years, experiencing four distinct periods of easing, each with varying durations and outcomes [1][2]. Asset Price Behavior - Three key patterns in asset price movements during the trade friction are identified: 1. Long-term asset price trends are primarily driven by fundamentals, with the Chinese stock market closely linked to domestic economic conditions [1][3]. 2. Markets react more sensitively to negative signals from trade negotiations, while responses to easing signals are relatively muted [1][3]. 3. Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to trade friction, with stocks and currencies being more responsive compared to the bond market, which is influenced more by domestic policies and fundamentals [1][3]. Specific Easing Periods - May 2018: A joint statement was released, but the easing lasted only 10 days. U.S. stocks showed volatility, while Chinese stocks faced downward pressure due to tariffs and financial deleveraging [2]. - December 2018: Following a leaders' meeting, tariffs were not escalated, leading to a four-month easing period. A-shares and H-shares initially rebounded but later fell again until a central bank rate cut in January 2019 [2]. - June 2019: A trade agreement was reached, resulting in a one-month easing period. However, subsequent trade tensions led to declines in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2]. - October 2019: A phase one trade agreement was achieved, causing initial stock market gains, but the bond market reacted less significantly [2].