中金：美国还能“扛多久”？

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic changes in Trump's tariff policy towards China, with tariffs fluctuating from 34% to 125% and then down to 10% after negotiations, indicating a volatile trade environment [1][3] - The market has shown resilience, recovering losses incurred after the initial tariff announcements, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not be as severe as initially feared [1][3] - The article highlights the necessity for the U.S. to lower tariffs to avoid significant economic and inflationary pressures, as high tariffs are unsustainable for both the U.S. and China [3][5] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on U.S. inflation, potentially raising the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1 percentage point, although factors like low oil prices and inventory replenishment may delay this effect until late Q3 [25][32] - The article outlines that U.S. inventory levels have increased significantly, with a 20% rise in import amounts and a 2.4% increase in nominal inventory compared to the previous year, indicating a robust supply chain response [10][18] - Different industries will experience varying levels of pressure from tariffs, with textiles, apparel, computers, and electronics facing the most significant challenges due to their high reliance on imports from China [22][23] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that U.S. economic growth can be sustained until the end of the year, supported by consumer spending and investment, but warns that renewed tariffs could lead to stagnation [36][37] - It notes that the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is constrained by inflationary pressures, which could further suppress private sector credit expansion and investment [8][36] - The potential for tax cuts and further tariff reductions could alleviate some of the economic pressures, but the timing and implementation of these measures remain uncertain [9][57] Group 4 - The financial market's stability is under scrutiny, particularly following a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which could affect investor confidence and market dynamics [58][59] - The article points out that the upcoming debt ceiling resolution and increased bond supply could lead to liquidity issues in the market, impacting the overall financial landscape [59][61] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency are raised, particularly if tariffs continue to affect trade balances and investor sentiment [65]