美债真的崩了吗？ | 周度量化观察

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback this week, while the Hang Seng Index rose. The bond market showed narrow fluctuations, and gold prices recovered after a dip. US stocks, bonds, and the dollar all saw varying degrees of decline [2] - The small-cap index, which performed well last week, also faced a pullback this week. The market's short-term upward movement may be under pressure due to high trading volume in small-cap stocks, indicating a crowded investment style [2] Bond Market - The bond market showed a mixed performance with a balanced and slightly loose funding environment. The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated, initially declining before rising again. Despite a double reduction in deposit and loan rates, the bond market reacted negatively, with yields increasing due to a significant issuance of government bonds [2][8] - The central bank increased net liquidity, which is favorable for the bond market. The current bond market is seen as a low-volatility asset suitable for asset allocation [8] Commodity Market - Gold prices rose significantly, with a weekly increase of over 4%. The upward trend was interrupted briefly by a rebound in the US dollar index, but gold continued to rise afterward [3][9] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has weakened the dollar's credibility, reinforcing the long-term investment value of gold amid geopolitical tensions [9] Overseas Market - The US stock market's earnings reports for the first quarter were generally acceptable, but the short-term rebound potential has diminished. Discussions around US Treasury bonds have intensified, with concerns about the weakening of the dollar's credibility being a long-term issue [10] - The recent downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concerns about fiscal expansion and inflation, leading to fluctuations in US Treasury yields [4][10] Economic Data - April macroeconomic data showed a slight slowdown in the economy, with retail sales, fixed asset investment, and real estate development investment growth rates all below previous values. However, industrial value-added growth was slightly above expectations [6][28][29] - The overall economic pressure is expected to increase in the third quarter, despite some easing in the second quarter due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations [6] Industry Performance - In the stock market, the pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metal sectors performed well, with weekly gains of 1.78%, 1.41%, and 1.26% respectively [23][25] - The banking sector showed a modest increase of 0.61%, while the electronics sector experienced a decline of 2.17% [25][26] Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China has initiated a new round of deposit rate cuts, with major banks reducing rates across various terms, marking a shift to a "1%" era for deposit rates [36][37] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has relaxed regulations on mergers and acquisitions, supporting cross-border mergers and simplifying review processes [36]