摩根士丹利：上调中国经济增速及股指目标

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for this year, while also increasing its stock index targets, suggesting that investors can achieve excess returns through selective stock and sector investments [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The chief economist of Morgan Stanley, Xing Ziqiang, noted that while trade tensions have eased, challenges in real estate and consumption persist. The GDP growth forecasts for this year and next have been adjusted from 4.2%/4.0% to 4.5%/4.2% respectively. The GDP growth for Q4 this year is expected to be 4.0%, up from a previous estimate of 3.7% [3]. - The report anticipates that the U.S. tariffs on China will remain at the current 30% level for the next two years, reducing the urgency for new policy measures. The existing policy framework aims to stabilize the economy while gradually addressing structural issues like debt and economic imbalances [3]. - It is expected that the government may introduce additional fiscal stimulus of 0.5 trillion to 1 trillion RMB to support infrastructure investments, alongside potential interest rate cuts of 15-20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 50 basis points [3]. Risks and Optimistic Scenarios - Key risk factors include tariffs and domestic policy directions. In an optimistic scenario, Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. may further eliminate 20% of the fentanyl tariffs by the end of Q3 this year, coupled with more consumer stimulus and accelerated structural reforms from Chinese policymakers. Under this scenario, actual GDP growth could reach 4.7% and 4.5% for the next two years [4]. Stock Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist, Wang Ying, has raised the stock index targets for China due to structural improvements such as a rebound in return on equity (ROE) and stabilization in earnings. However, macroeconomic pressures persist, leading to a maintained market weight rating for Chinese stocks, with a recommendation for selective stock and sector investments [5]. - The reasons for the upgraded rating include: (1) a rebound in net asset returns and upward adjustments in valuation, particularly for offshore stocks; (2) confirmed government support for the private sector; (3) the emergence of leading tech companies in AI and smart manufacturing that can compete globally [5]. - The projected index targets for June 2026 are: MSCI China Index at 78 points (up 5%), Hang Seng Index at 24,500 points (up 5%), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 8,900 points (up 5%), and CSI 300 Index at 4,000 points (up 3%) [5]. Market Preferences and Sector Recommendations - Morgan Stanley favors offshore Chinese stocks, recommending an overweight position in Hong Kong stocks and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). The expectation of a stronger RMB and continued inflow of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market are seen as positive factors [6]. - In terms of sector allocation, the recommendation is to overweight two main areas: (1) leading companies in technology and internet sectors, particularly those involved in AI and smart manufacturing; (2) high dividend strategies to hedge against volatility. Conversely, it suggests underweighting cyclical sectors such as energy and real estate [6].