红利指数上涨的底层逻辑是什么，还能持续吗？｜第386期直播回放

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the dividend index over the years, highlighting its strong performance in recent years and exploring the factors driving this growth, as well as the sustainability of this trend in the future [1][6]. Group 1: Recent Performance of the Dividend Index - The dividend index has shown strong performance in recent years, particularly from 2022 to 2024, with overall growth observed [6]. - In contrast, during the growth style bull market from 2019 to 2021, the dividend index lagged behind the broader market, with the growth style index rising over 150% and the A-share CSI All Share Index increasing over 80% [5][6]. - Some dividend funds have seen net asset values increase by 50% to 80% in recent years [7]. Group 2: Sources of Returns for Dividend Index Funds - The returns from dividend index funds can be summarized by the formula: Index Fund Net Value = Valuation × Earnings + Dividends, where valuation has a significant impact during bull and bear markets [9]. - The long-term growth rate of the dividend index is estimated at 8%-9%, with an annual dividend yield of 3%-4%, leading to an annualized return of 8.73% and 12.52% when including dividends [11][13]. - The four main sources of returns for dividend index funds are: undervalued buying with valuation improvement, earnings growth, dividend yield, and rule optimization [15][30]. Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Growth - Since the end of 2018, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the dividend index has increased from around 7-8 times to approximately 9-10 times by May 2025 [14]. - Stable earnings growth has been a fundamental driver of the dividend index's rise, with net profit growth stabilizing in recent years [16]. - The dividend yield has increased significantly, with many stocks now offering yields of 5%-6%, compared to 4%-5% during previous high-performance periods [18][20]. Group 4: Policy Impact on Dividend Distribution - Recent policies have encouraged companies to increase dividend payouts, with cash dividends from A-share companies reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [25]. - The proportion of profits distributed as dividends has risen, with some companies increasing their payout ratios from 30%-40% to 40%-50% [25]. - These changes have led to a significant increase in dividend yields, although the growth rate of underlying earnings has slowed [27][28]. Group 5: Evolution of Dividend Index Rules - The initial dividend index was based solely on dividend yield, but newer indices have optimized selection rules to include company quality and market volatility [31][32]. - The evolution of dividend indices has resulted in improved returns, as seen in the comparison between the Hong Kong-Shanghai Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index and the CSI Dividend Index [33].