债务上限上演“生死时速”！参议院税改拉锯战或引爆违约危机

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate is facing unprecedented challenges regarding the fiscal capacity of the government as it works on a multi-trillion dollar tax reform and spending plan proposed by President Trump, with the debt ceiling increase tied to this significant economic legislation [1][2] Group 1: Legislative Challenges - The tax reform bill is undergoing lengthy scrutiny in the Senate, with Republican lawmakers indicating substantial modifications will be made before passage [1][2] - The House version of the bill narrowly passed, suggesting potential turbulence when the revised bill returns for approval [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - As the potential default deadline approaches, political maneuvering may incite market panic, with Treasury Secretary warning of exhausting borrowing capacity by August if the debt ceiling is not raised [2] - Short-term Treasury bond prices have declined, with yields on bonds maturing in August reaching 4.34% [2] Group 3: Internal Republican Dynamics - The ability to raise the debt ceiling hinges on whether Republicans can reach consensus on the tax reform proposal, with Senate leaders acknowledging the difficulty of securing majority votes by July 4 [3] - There are conflicting views within the party regarding tax cuts and spending reductions, complicating the legislative process [3][4] Group 4: Proposed Modifications - Some senators are advocating for the permanent extension of certain tax cuts, while others are pushing for increased tax credits, which could heighten fiscal pressure and lead to more stringent spending cuts [4] - The debate includes contentious issues such as state and local tax deductions, with some lawmakers threatening to withdraw support unless their demands are met [4] Group 5: Democratic Opposition - Although Democrats are excluded from the budget reconciliation process, they can challenge non-fiscal provisions in the bill, potentially prolonging the legislative review [5] - Democratic senators are actively opposing the bill, citing numerous policy contents that do not comply with Senate rules [5]