不同寻常的美元周期——特征、机制与展望

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar cycle exhibits unprecedented characteristics, with its resilience surpassing historical experiences. This cycle shows three unusual behaviors: divergence from reserve currency share, divergence from fiscal and trade deficit expansion, and divergence from high inflation [2][3][7]. Historical Review and Current Characteristics - The dollar cycle has extended for 17 years since 2008, with a 40% increase, marking the longest uptrend since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution. The current dollar index peak exceeds the historical high of the 1990s [5][4]. Unusual Divergences - The first divergence is the decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from over 60% to just above 50% since 2015, despite a strong dollar index [7][10]. - The second divergence involves the fiscal deficit, which has reached nearly 15% of GDP, yet the dollar remains strong, contrary to traditional expectations [7][8]. - The third divergence is the occurrence of 9% inflation in the U.S. without a corresponding depreciation of the dollar, as other developed economies also face high inflation [10][11]. Mechanisms Driving the Dollar Cycle - The dollar cycle is influenced by fundamental, policy, and capital flow mechanisms, with geopolitical factors playing a significant role. The interaction between the real and financial sectors can lead to "overshooting" of the dollar cycle [3][13]. - The fundamental aspect is crucial, as the dollar index correlates with the U.S. GDP growth relative to other countries. The relative strength of the dollar is maintained as long as the U.S. economy performs better than its competitors [11][13]. Policy and Capital Flow Influences - The U.S. monetary policy's relative tightness supports the dollar, while international capital inflows, particularly into U.S. equities, have shifted from traditional treasury purchases [17][19]. - The dollar's strength is also supported by the unique structure of the U.S. economy, which has become less dependent on global trade, allowing it to withstand the negative effects of a strong dollar [14][15]. Potential Downturn of the Dollar - There are indications that the dollar may have entered a downtrend due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy, increasing global competition, and structural changes in the asset-liability dynamics of the U.S. [20][21]. - The U.S. has strong incentives to seek a weaker dollar, as it can help address the rising current account deficit and manage its extensive foreign liabilities [21][23]. Future Considerations - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the internal correction mechanisms within the U.S. economy, influenced by various political and economic forces [26][27]. - The ongoing competition in technology, particularly with China, and the evolving geopolitical landscape will also play critical roles in determining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [27][23].