招商银行研究·2025-05-26 10:43Group 1: Overseas Economy - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points) for the year [2][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a 2.4% annualized growth rate for US real GDP in Q2, driven by personal consumption (PCE) growth of 3.6% and private investment growth of 2.7%, while real estate and construction are contracting due to high interest rates [2] - The job market remains robust, with initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, indicating a low unemployment level [2] - Inflation effects from tariffs are manageable, with a 2% increase in import prices noted, and inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in the second half of the year [2] - The "Beautiful Act" is progressing well, but the US fiscal deficit is significantly high, reaching $91.9 billion weekly, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2] Group 2: Overseas Strategy - Global market concerns have risen due to US debt rating downgrades and trade tensions, leading to increased US bond yields and a weaker dollar [4] - The S&P 500 index saw a 13% year-on-year EPS growth in Q1, exceeding market expectations, indicating resilience in US corporate earnings despite macroeconomic weaknesses [4] - The ongoing easing of inflation pressures provides the Federal Reserve with more policy maneuvering space, suggesting a potential new upward trend for US stocks [4] - Short-term US bond yields may face upward pressure, while a strategy focusing on medium to short-duration bonds is recommended [6] - The Chinese yuan may experience short-term pressure due to seasonal currency purchase demands, but overall stability is expected [6] Group 3: Chinese Economy - Domestic demand shows stability in car purchases, while real estate transactions are cooling, with new home sales in major cities declining by 5.7% year-on-year [7] - Export activities are accelerating as US importers rush to procure goods before tariff exemptions expire, with a 21.5% increase in container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles [7] - Fiscal revenue improved in April, with tax revenue growing by 1.9% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth this year [8] - Land transfer income also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, indicating a recovery in the real estate market, although pressures remain [8] Group 4: Chinese Strategy - The bond market is experiencing slight adjustments, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-duration bonds due to better risk-return profiles [11] - The A-share market is facing pressure from declining M1 and medium to long-term loan growth, indicating potential volatility [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing similar trends to the A-share market, with a focus on high-quality companies and stable dividend-paying stocks [12]