海外宏观：美国经济回暖 美国经济动能边际回暖。 8月7日，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型Q3经济增速预测值升高至2.5%，其中私人消费 增速达到2.0%，剔除库存的私人投资增速达到2.5%，美国经济或已走出Q2阶段性低迷。 美国就业形势依然稳健。 W31首次申领失业金人数22.6万，近期趋势稳定低于季节性水平。W30持续申领失业 金人数197.4万，上行斜率趋势性放缓。总体而言，尽管持续失业人数温和上涨，但首次失业人数保持低位， 就业市场在低波动状态中维持着相对均衡，未来失业率上行空间有限。 美国通胀面临上行压力。 GDPNOW模型Q3服务消费增速预测值达到1.9%，较二季度（1.4%）进一步回暖， 可能逆转服务通胀降温趋势。此外，随着关税协议大范围落地，美国进口关税税率或从8%上行至15%以上， 部分商品价格或进一步上涨。 特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰为美联储代理理事，并继续推进下一任美联储主席相关事宜，希望通过施压美联储降 息减少财政付息压力。 当前市场近乎完全定价9月降息25bp，年内降息次数预期稳定在2-3次（50-75bp）。 海外策略：降息交易延续 受到特朗普提名米兰进入美联储理事会的影响，市场继续围绕降 ...

■ 客户筛选与银行业务。 （本段有删节，招商银行各行部请登录"招银智库"查看原文） ■ 风险提示。 创新药研发进度不及预期；竞争格局发生较大变化；License out产品被退货，研发投入压力加 大，海外研发进度不及预期；行业政策变动的风险。 相关报告 《生物医药之创新药——ADC行业加速发展，中国力量不容忽视》 《生物医药之减肥药——全球市场需求爆发，紧抓GLP-1产业链机遇》 正文 ■ 医保政策推动下，出海已经是必然选择。 随着老龄化程度不断加深，国内医保收支平衡压力持续增大，也 制约了我国创新药产业的发展。而我国医疗费用支出中商业保险占比仅6.5%，远低于美国、日本等国家，短 期无法支撑创新药械支付。投融资方面，一二级市场融资压力大，激发企业创新出海动力。2021年7月后，A 股和港股IPO难度加大。一级市场投融资逐步趋弱，虽然2024年海外市场一级开始恢复，但国内仍是量价齐 跌。海外市场创新药品定价高，市场空间大。此外，从日本经验来看，创新和出海是打破国内压力的必经之 路。 ■ 中国创新药仍在不断发展，创新能力不断增强。 虽然一二级市场融资压力大，但国产创新药研发热情不 减，创新成果持续增长。海外市场 ...

海外宏观：理性看待非农恐慌 非农恐慌来自5-6月新增就业大幅下修。 5月数据下调12.5万至1.9万，6月下调13.3万至1.4万，结合新公布的7 月数据7.3万，3个月滑动平均已经跌至3.5万，就业增长近乎停滞。 不宜线性外推美国就业转冷趋势。 一是新增非农就业统计精度严重下降，好数据不代表真的好，坏数据同样 无法代表真的坏。二是失业率（4.2%）稳居低位，薪资增速（3.9%）依然平稳，劳动参与率（62.2%）持续回 落。这意味着在移民减少的大背景下，维持就业市场供求平衡所需的新增就业人数已经非常低。三是高频指标 指向就业市场已经再度走强，周频首次申领失业金人数降至21.8万，大幅低于季节性水平。 雇佣减少是二季度美国经济阶段性转弱的表现，这一趋势同样已经逆转。 8月1日，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模 型三季度美国实际GDP年化增速预测值为2.2%，内生动能全面回暖。其中私人消费（1.6%）小幅回暖，私人 投资（6.3%）大幅扩张，库存扩张贡献较大，地产投资（1.9%）转跌为涨亦是重要驱动。需要强调的是，服 务消费（1.8%）明显回暖，对其走势高度敏感的通胀与就业或难进一步转冷。 经济回暖的两个动因是财政重回 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tokenized money market funds (TMFs) represent a digital form of traditional money market funds, leveraging blockchain technology for enhanced traceability, transparency, and potential efficiency improvements. The market for TMFs in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate with the anticipated opening of secondary market trading [3][5][26]. Group 1: Understanding Tokenized Money Market Funds - TMFs are digital representations of traditional money market funds, where each token represents a share in the fund, maintaining similar underlying assets such as bonds and short-term deposits [7][8]. - The current TMFs in Hong Kong are primarily non-listed and only allow subscription and redemption in the primary market, with secondary market trading expected to be permitted within the year [8][10]. - The issuance of TMFs provides a dual distribution model, allowing participation through traditional brokers and digital asset platforms [7][8]. Group 2: Mechanism and Market Landscape - The operational mechanism of TMFs involves key participants such as tokenization service providers, custodians, and qualified distributors, ensuring compliance and security in managing tokenized assets [11][12]. - The TMF market in Hong Kong is rapidly developing, with various funds launched, including those by Bosera and Huaxia, covering multiple currencies [17][18][19]. Group 3: Comparison with Traditional Money Market Funds - The primary differences between TMFs and traditional money market funds include ownership recording methods, transparency levels, management fees, and transaction efficiency [20][21]. - TMFs utilize decentralized record-keeping via blockchain, enhancing transparency and reducing fraud risks compared to centralized systems of traditional funds [22]. - While TMFs currently have similar initial investment thresholds as traditional funds, future secondary market trading may lower these barriers [24][25]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Market Potential - The future of TMFs appears promising, driven by market demand, technological innovation, and regulatory clarity, with significant growth potential anticipated [26][27]. - The successful issuance of TMFs is expected to facilitate the connection between crypto assets and traditional financial assets, serving as a foundation for further tokenization in asset management [26][27]. - The market for TMFs is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that tokenized products could reach $400 billion by 2030, with TMFs being a key driver [28][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50%, indicating limited room for future rate cuts due to the current economic conditions and political pressures [1][6]. Economic Summary - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate slowdown, with a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3.0%. However, private sector momentum has significantly weakened, with private sector annualized growth dropping to 1.2%, the lowest in 2023 [4]. - Key economic challenges include a decline in construction investment (-10.3%) and residential investment (-4.6%), both sensitive to interest rates. High long-term rates are increasing costs for home purchases and real estate investments, leading to a sluggish housing market [4]. - Consumer spending growth in the second quarter was only 1.4%, which, while an improvement from the first quarter (0.5%), remains below the long-term trend of 2-3% [4]. Policy Summary - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate level, which is described as "moderately restrictive," suggesting limited future rate cuts. Chairman Powell has not provided clear guidance on when cuts might occur [6]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed will not be responsible for national fiscal issues and will focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [6][7]. Strategy Summary - Given the increasing demand for dollars and the ongoing "funding shortage," the strategy suggests buying long-term U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield is in the 4.05%-4.15% range and the 10-year yield is in the 4.5%-4.6% range [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a neutral and cautious stance towards the dollar, correcting previous overly bearish sentiments [8].

Group 1: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation for cash products is to maintain a standard allocation due to stable returns, while acknowledging a long-term downward trend in yields [2] - For fixed income, the focus is on short to medium-term bonds, with an emphasis on opportunities in long-term bonds when yields rebound [2] - In equities, a balanced allocation is suggested, with a focus on dividend stocks and sectors like technology and healthcare [2] Group 2: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a decline in internal momentum, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, primarily supported by a reduction in imports [4][5] - European economic conditions are improving, with fiscal policies remaining loose and inflation returning to reasonable levels, contributing to a recovery in economic sentiment [4][21] - Japan's economic outlook is mixed, with wage growth lagging behind inflation, impacting consumer spending and investment [27][31] Group 3: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. fiscal position is tightening, leading to a decrease in disposable income and a cooling of consumer spending [9][12] - Long-term interest rates remain high, affecting investment in interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate and traditional manufacturing [12] - Despite economic cooling, the job market remains stable, with unemployment rates unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [12][14] Group 4: European Economic Recovery - The Eurozone is showing signs of resilience, with PMI indicators reflecting a rebound in both manufacturing and services sectors [21][22] - Inflation in the Eurozone is stabilizing around the ECB's target of 2%, providing confidence for the ECB to pause interest rate cuts [22] - The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty and support economic growth in the Eurozone [22] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - Gold is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but remains a viable investment due to central bank purchases and market expectations of interest rate cuts [51] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to challenge $80 per barrel in the short term, but long-term pressures may push prices down to around $50 [56] - Copper prices may stabilize as production season approaches, following a period of price adjustments due to tariffs [56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recruitment for a capital market research position focusing on overseas and equity markets, highlighting the need for comprehensive research capabilities and the ability to identify investment opportunities and risks [4][5][6]. Group 2 - The job responsibilities include researching overseas markets (covering fixed income, equity, foreign exchange) and A-share markets (financial, technology, consumer sectors), building a research framework, and producing asset allocation recommendations [4]. - The role also involves conducting forward-looking and comprehensive thematic/deep research, producing research reports, and completing research projects [5]. - Additionally, the position requires providing buy-side research services to internal departments and facilitating the application of research outcomes based on business needs [5][6]. Group 3 - The job requirements specify a master's degree or higher, preferably in economics or finance, with a strong foundation in macro research [8]. - Candidates should have over three years of experience in research roles at large financial institutions, with a preference for those with overseas research, banking research, or wealth management research experience [9]. - The ideal candidate should possess a passion for research, a solid methodology and framework for asset research, and excellent written and verbal communication skills [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The topic of de-dollarization has gained significant traction in the global financial market, particularly influenced by trade wars and U.S. fiscal sustainability risks. However, despite discussions, the fundamental position of the U.S. dollar remains strong in the international monetary system [1][4][6]. Group 1: De-dollarization Trends - De-dollarization has become a dominant narrative in global financial markets, especially after the U.S. implemented "reciprocal tariffs" and faced poor auction results for 20Y U.S. Treasuries, leading to significant outflows from U.S. equities, bonds, and dollar-denominated funds [1][6]. - The dollar's share in global reserves has been declining, from 73% in 2001 to 58% currently, indicating a trend towards diversification of reserve assets [10][13]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share of reserves, it still holds a dominant position, with the euro and other currencies unable to effectively challenge its status [9][10]. Group 2: Payment and Settlement - The dollar maintains a dominant position in international payment systems, accounting for nearly 50% of transactions, with its share continuing to rise, contrary to de-dollarization narratives [15][16]. - The infrastructure supporting dollar transactions, such as SWIFT and Fedwire, reinforces its central role in global payments, creating a dependency that is difficult to disrupt [18][19]. Group 3: Investment and Financing - In the investment domain, the dollar's share in foreign exchange transactions remains stable at around 90%, indicating a strong reliance on the dollar for global asset allocation and risk management [22][25]. - The dollar also dominates international bond issuance, holding a 46% share, while its market share in trade financing remains between 80-90%, further solidifying its position [25][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of substantial de-dollarization in the international monetary system is low, as there are currently no viable alternative currencies to challenge the dollar's dominance [28][29]. - Historical context shows that the transition of dominant currencies is a lengthy process, requiring significant shifts in political, economic, and military power [44][47]. - The narrative of de-dollarization may be more of a short-term fluctuation rather than a long-term trend, as the fundamental support for the dollar remains robust [49][50].

Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sustainability risks of Japan's public debt amid rising global interest rates and inflation, highlighting the potential for a "stagflation" scenario that could challenge Japan's fiscal stability and economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Public Debt and Economic Conditions - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 228% by the end of 2024, a significant increase from 67% in 1990, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][8]. - The apparent decline in Japan's public debt ratio since 2020 is attributed to a combination of nominal economic growth driven by inflation and the Bank of Japan's low interest rate policy, rather than genuine fiscal improvement [11][12]. - The long-standing low inflation and low interest rate environment has allowed Japan to maintain high levels of public debt without immediate fiscal repercussions, but this situation may be changing as inflation rises [18][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Wage Dynamics - Japan is experiencing a shift from low inflation to rising prices, with the CPI surpassing 2% since April 2022, driven by both domestic and external factors, including a depreciating yen and supply chain issues [28][34]. - The aging population in Japan is contributing to upward pressure on wages, with expectations for salary increases becoming more entrenched, potentially leading to a wage-price spiral [2][34]. - The current inflation is primarily driven by essential goods, which may lead to increased demands for wage hikes among workers, further complicating the economic landscape [31][32]. Group 3: Future Risks and Market Implications - The potential for a "stagflation" scenario poses significant risks to Japan's public debt sustainability, as rising interest rates could outpace economic growth, leading to higher debt servicing costs [47][48]. - If the Bank of Japan tightens its monetary policy in response to inflation, it could exacerbate the fiscal pressures on the government, leading to a potential increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio [11][48]. - The article warns that Japan's reliance on long-term bonds and the central bank's significant holdings of government debt could lead to increased market volatility if interest rates rise unexpectedly [49][52].