大类资产配置建议表 | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | 配置建议(未来6个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 中高配 | 标配 O | 中低配 | 低配 | | | | 美元 欧元 | 震荡 震荡 | | O | | | | | 汇率 | 人民币 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 日元 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 英镑 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | 固收 | 中国国债 | 偏弱震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 中国信用债 | 偏弱震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 可转债 | 震荡 | | O | | | | | | 美元债 | 震荡 | ● | | | | | | | Ａ股 | 偏强震荡 | | | | | | | | 一消费 | 震荡 | | O O | | | | | | 一周期 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 一成长 | 震荡 | | O | | | | | 权益 | 一高股息 | 偏强震荡 | ● | | | ...

■ 世界为什么需要类人形的机器人？ 人形机器人相较于传统专用机器人，展现出更为显著的产业化适配潜 力，主要体现在以下四个方面：一是与现有基础设施具备良好的兼容性；二是能够积累更丰富的场景数据；三 是可实现与生产力资源之间的高效协同；四是具备更高的社会接受度。经过多年技术演进，人形机器人已进入 人工智能驱动的商业化加速落地阶段。预计到2035年，全球人形机器人年出货量将达到500万台，市场规模有 望突破4000亿元。 ■ 驱动人形机器人产业爆发的因素是什么？ 政策端， 美欧日等发达国家在机器人产业布局较早，但近两年， 中国连续颁布一系列机器人相关政策，重视程度与日俱增； 需求端， 我国劳动力市场正经历"量减质变"的双 重冲击，为人形机器人商业化提供了刚性的需求基础； 资本端， 活跃的资本市场加速了技术迭代，已成为人 形机器人产业发展的关键驱动力； 技术端， 随着大模型训练算力成本下降及产业链资源整合加速，人形机器 人有望在制造、医疗、服务等领域实现规模化应用的突破。 ■ 人形机器人的产业链准备好了么？ 脑部： "大脑"负责顶层决策，主要依靠AI芯片与算法提供技术支撑；"小 脑"负责运动控制，核心支持来自控制器和 ...

美债方面， 预计经济增速会放缓但不会陷入全面衰退，"快速降息说"在短期内难以持续，长端利率未来可能 会被推升，趋势上将继续维持高位震荡走势。收益率曲线因市场预期美联储降息以及对美国财政前景和美联储 独立性担忧而显著陡峭化，2s10s与5s30s曲线在达到峰值前或仍有约15-20bp的陡峭化空间。 美元方面， 短期多空交织，年内预计维持震荡走势，波动区间在95-103之间。在"美降欧停"的货币政策格局 下，利差将对美元构成压制。但考虑到市场定价相对充分，叠加美国经济韧性和再通胀前景，将对美元形成支 撑，进一步下行空间有限。中长期看美元仍处2008年以来的牛市当中，但也需关注美联储的独立性问题，若市 场的担忧情绪占据上风，可能会制约美元表现。 人民币方面， 短期来看，人民币可能会维持偏强态势，但若出现A股下跌、美国降息预期修正等边际变化，可 能会对人民币的强势构成一定扰动。中期维持人民币双向波动的判断不变。一是美元暂无趋势性走弱动力。二 是中美利差倒挂在短期内难以显著改善。三是关税掣肘。 黄金方面， 牛市未完，投资者可继续持有。一是央行购金趋势并未看到逆转，货币属性对黄金利多。二是美 联储降息周期再次开启，叠加市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 美东时间9月17日，美联储将基准利率下调25bp至4.00-4.25%的目标区间，准备金利率（IORB）降至4.15%。 缩表进程保持不变，保持国债赎回上限$50亿和房屋抵押债券（MBS）赎回上限$350亿。 市场最初反应偏鸽，对年内降息的定价从42bp升至45bp，但这一影响很快消退。鲍威尔对过度鸽派倾向进行了 否定，收盘时市场交易由鸽转鹰。美国国债收益率上涨，美元小幅走强，美股三大指数基本横盘，黄金下跌， 境外美元流动性宽松。 总体而言，本次议息会议呈现三点特征：一是降息基调为预防式降息；二是美国未来强经济和弱就业并存；三 是美联储官员内部分歧加大。 预计美联储年内将再降息2次（50bp），建议继续持有美国中短债和黄金，美元 趋于震荡，美股延续上行。 | | | 市场预测 | 实际 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联邦基金利率上限 | 9月17日 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 联邦基金利率下限 | 9月17日 | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 储备金余额利率 | 9 月 18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for August indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with key indicators falling short of market expectations, highlighting persistent supply-demand imbalances and increasing downward pressure on growth [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, influenced by adjustments in national subsidies and the emergence of consumption loan interest subsidies [3][5]. - Commodity consumption growth declined by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%, marking the third consecutive month of slowdown, with notable performance in upgraded goods like jewelry and sports equipment [5]. - Service consumption remained resilient, with retail sales growth slightly decreasing to 5.1%, driven by increased demand for travel and leisure activities during the summer [8][10]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments also declining [11][12]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with new construction and sales continuing to weaken, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [12][15]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate investment, including early issuance of local government debt limits to alleviate financial burdens [15][28]. Group 3: Trade - Export growth in August was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 7.2%, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., which fell by 33.1% [19][21]. - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.3%, with declines in energy and agricultural product imports, while trade surplus expanded to $102.33 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Group 4: Supply - Industrial production growth slowed to 5.2%, below the expected 5.7%, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances and a decline in the production of consumer goods [22]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed robust growth, with a 9.3% increase, while overall production faced challenges from weak domestic and external demand [22]. Group 5: Inflation - CPI inflation rose to 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while PPI inflation improved to -2.9%, indicating some recovery in industrial prices [25][27]. - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests potential for marginal recovery in prices, supported by various favorable factors [27]. Group 6: Outlook - The economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 4.7% for the third quarter, with increasing pressure to stabilize growth and the likelihood of new policies to support consumption and investment [28].

美国就业加速转冷。 W36首次申领失业金人数超季节性上行2.7万至26.3万，创过去4年新高。W35持续申领失 业金人数稳定在193.9万，继续于193-198万区间震荡，暂未出现显著上行趋势。 美国通胀短期无虞。 8月美国PPI通胀意外回落至2.6%，显著低于市场预期的3.3%；CPI通胀小幅上行至2.9%， 关税对商品通胀的影响仍弱于预期。 美国财政政策保持宽松立场。 W36赤字额达到$369亿，持续强于季节性运行。截至8月，2025财年（2024Q4- 2025Q3）累计赤字达到$1.99万亿，创历史新高。 美国货币政策行将重启宽松，鸽派预期发酵推动私人部门融资成本下行。 居民部门方面，30年期房贷利率回 落15bp至6.25%；企业部门方面，10年期AAA企业债收益率回落8bp至4.26%。 上周美国公布的8月PPI数据意外低于预期，而CPI相对温和，叠加非农年度下修大幅低于预期，交易员已完全 定价年内三次降息，市场延续鸽派交易。美元、美债利率回落，黄金上涨并续创历史新高，人民币小幅升值。 海外策略：美国货币政策行将重启宽松 美股方面， 上周美股上涨，主要受美联储宽松预期上升影响。展望未来，我们认为当 ...

招商银行博士后科研工作站成立于2003年, 于2009年获得独立招收和培养博士后资格。作为 中国最佳商业银行高层次专业人才培养的平台,招 商银行博士后工作站现面向境内外公开招收第23 批（2026年）博士后研究人员。有关事项公告 如下。 A 商品使用 -2026年博士后研究人员招聘公告- 中国金融科技最佳试验场等你来定义未来 指商银行1987年成立于中国改革并放的鼓剧 深圳蛇口,是中国境内第一家完全由企业法 沿- 人持股的股份制商业银行。目前已发展成为沪港两 地上市,在全球具有鲜明发展特色和重要市场影响 力的银行集团,位列《银行家》全球银行干强榜单 第8位。 我们博士后研究方向和招收数量 拟招收5人,申请人可从以下研究方向中任选 -至两项申报: ● 低利率环境下的商业银行风险管理研究 ● 商业银行中小企业经营策略研究 ● 适用中国市场约束条件的大类资产配置模型研究 我们期待这样的你 01 有良好的政治素质和道德修养,遵纪 守法, 02 近两年在境内外获得博士学位或2026 年毕业的博士研究生,具有经济、金 融、管理、计算机、人工智能、数学 等课题相关专业的知识背景，有交叉 学科背景者优先； 热爰研究,更敬畏实 ...

事件：9月5日，证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》（以下简称"新规"）公 开征求意见。新规共有六章28条，主要包括合理调降公募基金认购费、申购费、销售服务费率水平,优化赎回 费制度安排，部分持有期限超过一年的基金不再计提销售服务费，设置差异化的尾随佣金支付比例上限，建立 基金直销服务平台等六方面内容。我们对此解读如下： 一、市场反应：债市回调，股市平淡 此次新规对债基赎回期限和费率要求较高，引发债市回调，曲线熊陡。9月8日、9日10Y国债活跃券利率累计 上行3.5bp至1.8%，二永债等信用债回调更加明显，5Y银行永续债（AAA-）上行8bp至2.24%。分机构看，基 金卖出现券情绪较为浓厚，其余机构维持买入。而股市对此反应相对平淡，9月8日、9日上证指数、沪深300指 数先上后下，分别较9月5日下跌0.1%和0.5%。 二、新规详解："宽进严出"，鼓励长投 本次新规核心目标是通过"降低认购费率，抬升提前赎回成本"等方式，全面重塑销售环节的费用结构，降低投 资者成本、引导长期投资、规范市场秩序，进而推动行业高质量发展。这一系列规定将对基金市场的生态产生 深远且结构性的影响，我们从投 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy remains strong, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.0%, driven by stable consumer spending and enhanced investment momentum, particularly in technology [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, signaling a potential restart of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expected to begin in September with a terminal rate around 3.5% [2][3] - Private sector financing costs are decreasing due to dovish expectations, which, combined with fiscal policy, may further strengthen the US economy [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Recent market movements show a decline in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of gold prices, with gold reaching historical highs amid a potential new easing cycle [3][5] - The dollar is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern between 95-103, influenced by the dual support of interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion [4] - The Chinese yuan is projected to remain strong in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from A-share market declines or adjustments in US rate cut expectations [4] Group 3: Chinese Economic Developments - The Chinese real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with major cities like Shenzhen easing purchase restrictions, leading to increased transaction volumes [7] - External demand remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI for new export orders at 47.2%, indicating continued contraction [8] - The People's Bank of China may resume purchasing government bonds if economic growth continues to slow, as indicated by recent discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [8] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Recent fluctuations in market sentiment have led to a slight decline in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% over the week [10][12] - The current market downturn is not driven by significant negative events, but rather by profit-taking and regulatory concerns regarding rapid market growth [12] - A rebound in the A-share market is anticipated after adjustments, supported by ongoing liquidity and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies suggest holding dividend stocks as a stable base, with growth sectors like technology and healthcare as aggressive positions, and undervalued consumer stocks as supplementary investments [13] - The bond market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a slight rise in the 10-year government bond yield, while maintaining a focus on short-duration bonds [11]