热点思考 | 美债“风暴”将至？——关税“压力测试”系列之九（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][7][69] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" has passed the House of Representatives, but its future in the Senate is uncertain due to the slim Republican majority, with potential modifications expected [3][29][70] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with estimates suggesting a 1.8 percentage point increase in the deficit rate by 2026, despite potential tariff revenues of approximately $2.5 trillion over ten years [3][40][70] - The Act primarily extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of the measures being extensions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which may have limited incremental economic impact [3][34][70] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to an approximate 78 basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47][70] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds observed in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][70] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]