Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is transitioning from a centralized to a distributed electronic architecture, with SoC chips becoming the core component for intelligent driving [3][4]. Group 1: Market Size and Growth - By 2030, the domestic intelligent driving solution market is expected to exceed 400 billion RMB, with global and Chinese smart vehicle sales projected to reach 81.5 million and 29.8 million units respectively [4]. - The penetration rates for intelligent driving (ADAS + AD) are anticipated to reach 96.7% globally and 99.7% in China by 2030, with the market size for intelligent driving solutions expected to surpass 1 trillion RMB globally and 400 billion RMB in China [4]. Group 2: SoC Market Dynamics - In 2024, NVIDIA is expected to dominate the high-end SoC market with over 30% market share, while Horizon is projected to lead the mid-to-low-end market with over 40% share, which is likely to expand further [4]. - Mainstream automakers are entering the vehicle SoC chip market through self-research, joint ventures, strategic investments, and collaborations, but the majority will still rely on third-party SoC manufacturers like NVIDIA and Horizon due to the lengthy development cycle and high costs associated with vehicle-grade chips [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Demand - The penetration of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) is expected to accelerate in the lower market segments, with demand for mid-to-high performance chips increasing as new technologies focus on VLA (Vehicle Location Awareness) and world models [6]. - By 2025, urban NOA is projected to enter the 150,000 to 250,000 RMB price range, with BYD promoting "intelligent driving equality," potentially driving high-end intelligent driving features into vehicles priced around 100,000 RMB [6].
【海外TMT】高阶智驾下沉趋势下,智驾SoC成黄金赛道——智能驾驶SoC行业深度报告(付天姿/王贇)
光大证券研究·2025-05-26 22:52