中金 | 奋楫者先，勇进者胜：中国黑电的全球突破

Core Viewpoint - The black electrical appliance industry is evolving into a large-scale industry that combines entertainment and essential attributes, driven by innovation and changes in the supply chain dynamics, with Chinese companies poised to achieve breakthroughs in both scale and profitability in the global market [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Historical Context - Profitability and growth potential are key factors suppressing market valuations of black electrical appliance companies, with the average return on equity (ROE) for the black electrical sector from 2010 to 2020 being only 6.5%, significantly lower than white goods (23.5%) and consumer electronics (14.4%) [2][7]. - The black electrical appliance industry has long been characterized by low valuations and profitability due to strong upstream bargaining power, intense competition among brands, and a saturation of domestic market demand [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Restructuring and Technological Upgrades - The restructuring of the supply chain, technological upgrades, and a shift towards high-end products are expected to enhance profitability, with domestic panel manufacturers gaining pricing power and reducing cost volatility [3][8]. - The black electrical appliance industry is entering a new phase of structural upgrades, driven by cost reductions and a trend towards larger and higher-end products, which will likely lead to improved profitability in the long term [3][4]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Since 2000, Korean companies have dominated the global black electrical appliance market, but Chinese companies are now gaining ground through rapid innovation and competitive pricing, with the global market concentration expected to increase, as indicated by a projected 56.3% market share for the top four brands by 2024 [4][34]. - Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL are rapidly expanding their global market share, with Hisense's share increasing from 6.2% in 2016 to 14% in 2024, and TCL's share rising from 5.8% to 13.9% in the same period [35][41]. Group 4: Regional Market Insights - The North American market is characterized by intense competition and a stable retail volume, with Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense increasing their presence in the high-end segment through strategies focused on larger screen sizes and channel optimization [39][41]. - In Europe, while the market is mature and declining, Chinese brands are leveraging sports marketing and local partnerships to enhance brand recognition and market share, with TCL's high-end Mini LED models gaining traction [43][56]. Group 5: Technological Innovations and Consumer Trends - The trend towards larger screens is evident, with the average size of televisions increasing from 39.2 inches in 2015 to 53 inches in 2024, and Chinese manufacturers leading this trend with a significant share of large-screen sales [64][67]. - High-end products are becoming more prevalent, with advancements in display technology such as Mini LED and AI integration driving up prices while maintaining manageable cost increases, thus improving profitability for manufacturers [70][63].