中金 | 磨床：产业升级与资本竞逐的黄金期

Core Viewpoint - The global grinding machine market is projected to reach $6 billion in 2024, with China accounting for 20% of this market. The market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape due to the specialized nature of grinding processes, which presents both opportunities for growth and challenges for consolidation [3][12][29]. Market Overview - The global grinding machine market size is expected to be approximately $6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3][8]. - China's grinding machine market is estimated at 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a domestic production rate of 52% [12][16]. - The market is expected to recover to 9.5 billion yuan by 2025 and reach 10.31 billion yuan by 2028, indicating robust growth potential [12]. Competitive Landscape - The Chinese grinding machine market is highly fragmented, with a CR5 market concentration of only 28.4% as of Q1 2025. The flat grinding machine market is highly concentrated, while external and internal grinding machines have intense competition with many small and medium-sized players [29][31]. - The specialized nature of grinding machines leads to low economies of scale, limiting market consolidation [31]. Supply Chain and Production - The grinding machine production process involves four main stages: casting processing, mechanical processing and forming, assembly and debugging, and quality inspection. Each stage requires strong technical capabilities and resource integration [26][28]. - The cost structure of grinding machines is dominated by spindle, structural components, and CNC systems, which account for 25%, 20%, and 15% of total costs, respectively [24]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China's grinding machine imports are projected to be $830 million, while exports are expected to be $240 million, resulting in a net import of $590 million [16][20]. - The average export price of Chinese grinding machines is $19,000 per unit, significantly lower than the average import price of $187,000 per unit [16]. Technological Advancements and Market Drivers - The demand for grinding machines is being driven by the growth of humanoid robots, which require high-precision components such as lead screws. The global market for lead screw grinding machines is expected to reach 3.2 billion yuan by 2028 [4][36]. - The acceleration of product iteration and capital operations in the grinding machine sector indicates a golden development period, with local manufacturers making significant technological advancements [4][37]. Future Outlook - The humanoid robot industry is expected to significantly impact the grinding machine market, with projections indicating a demand for 1 million units by 2028, leading to an estimated market size of 3.4 billion yuan for lead screw grinding machines [36]. - Local manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high precision and automation, narrowing the performance gap with imported equipment [37].