热点思考 | 美债“风暴”将至？——关税“压力测试”系列之九（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite limited marginal economic contributions [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential amendments could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act includes significant tax cuts, with 80% of the measures extending existing cuts and 20% introducing new cuts, but the overall economic impact is expected to be limited, similar to the effects of tax extensions in 2010 and 2012 [33][40][41] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]