银行螺丝钉·2025-05-26 13:58Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the classification of the consumer industry, its representative indices, and investment opportunities within the sector, highlighting the performance of essential and discretionary consumption categories [1][12][128]. Group 1: Common Indices in A-shares and H-shares - The consumer industry indices are categorized into four main types: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, and thematic indices [6][8][10]. - The consumer index falls under the industry index category, which specifically covers stocks within the consumer sector [11]. Group 2: Essential Consumption Industry - Essential consumption includes daily necessities such as food and beverages, which are crucial regardless of economic conditions [12][17]. - The representative index for essential consumption in A-shares is the CSI Consumer Index (000932.SH), established on July 3, 2009, with a base point of 1000 [18][21]. - The top ten holdings in the CSI Consumer Index are predominantly from the liquor sector, with over 50% of the weight attributed to liquor companies [22][23]. Group 3: Performance and Valuation of Essential Consumption - The annualized return of the CSI Consumer Index from December 31, 2009, to April 29, 2025, is 6.78%, increasing to 8.52% when considering dividends [23][26]. - The maximum drawdown for the index reached 58.69% during the period from February 10, 2021, to September 18, 2024 [24][26]. - Historical valuation metrics indicate that both the price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are currently at relatively low levels [27][42]. Group 4: Discretionary Consumption Industry - Discretionary consumption refers to non-essential goods that enhance quality of life, such as automobiles and home appliances [55]. - The representative index for discretionary consumption is the CSI Discretionary Consumption Index (000989.SH), which includes stocks from the discretionary consumption sector [56][57]. Group 5: Performance and Valuation of Discretionary Consumption - The annualized return of the CSI Discretionary Consumption Index from August 19, 2011, to April 29, 2025, is 2.23%, rising to 3.98% when including dividends [62]. - The maximum drawdown for this index was 62.65%, occurring between June 12, 2015, and January 3, 2019 [64]. - Valuation metrics for the discretionary consumption index suggest it is not particularly expensive but does not represent a low valuation either [67]. Group 6: Investment Cases and Strategies - Investment strategies in the consumer sector emphasize buying undervalued assets and holding them until they reach overvaluation [50][52]. - A notable case involved investing in the CSI Consumer Index during a low valuation period, resulting in a 64.05% return by the time of selling at a high valuation [115]. Group 7: Portfolios and Index Funds - The article outlines various index funds related to essential and discretionary consumption indices, highlighting the concentration of holdings in certain sectors [29][45][82]. - The CSI White Wine Index, due to its high concentration of holdings, has limited new fund issuance opportunities, making existing funds significant in size [46]. Group 8: Conclusion - The consumer industry is divided into essential and discretionary consumption, with corresponding representative indices available in A-shares and a combined index in H-shares [128]. - Historical returns in the consumer sector have been strong, but investment should focus on undervalued periods and maintain a balanced portfolio [128].