现行国际货币体系的内在矛盾和碎片化风险 | 国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing threats posed by the U.S. to the international financial system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, which undermines the credibility of the U.S. and the Western-dominated financial system. This may lead to the fragmentation of the international monetary system and the potential formation of currency blocs based on economic and geopolitical factors, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and regional financial cooperation in East Asia [2][16][21]. Group 1: International Monetary System Dynamics - The U.S. has maintained its economic prosperity by borrowing from the world, creating a cycle where other countries accumulate U.S. dollar assets, leading to a situation where the U.S. can run persistent trade deficits [4][6]. - The U.S. has become a net debtor since 1985, with overseas net liabilities exceeding $18 trillion by the end of 2021, representing over 70% of its GDP, indicating a growing dependency on foreign capital [9][10]. - The global foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, from $33 billion in 1969 to $13 trillion by the end of 2021, with U.S. dollar reserves accounting for $7 trillion, highlighting the strong demand for the dollar as a reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Financial Weaponization and Its Implications - The freezing of Russian reserves has fundamentally altered the rules of international finance, raising concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as a custodian of global financial stability [15][16]. - The concept of financial weaponization poses a new risk to countries holding U.S. dollar reserves, as it undermines trust in the U.S. financial system and could lead to a reevaluation of reserve currency holdings by other nations [15][20]. Group 3: Regional Financial Cooperation and Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi has gained momentum due to the weaponization of the dollar, with the Chinese government expected to facilitate this process, although it will be gradual [18][21]. - East Asian countries are encouraged to enhance regional financial cooperation, particularly through frameworks like the Chiang Mai Initiative, to mitigate the impacts of global financial instability [19][21].