读研报 | 国货潮玩出海，爆款之外的人货场之变

Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic潮玩 (trendy toys) in international markets is not a coincidence, but rather a significant transformation in the toy industry, driven by changes in consumer demographics and product offerings [2][5]. Group 1: Consumer Demographics - The consumer base for toys is shifting from primarily children to older age groups, particularly in overseas markets, with adult and teenage consumers increasingly contributing to sales [2][5]. - In the U.S. toy market, consumers aged 12 and above account for approximately 25% of sales, contributing over $9 billion, and have driven 60% of market growth from 2021 to 2022 [2]. - In 2023, adult toy sales in the U.S. increased by 8%, representing 7.3% of the total toy market, while in five EU countries, the same demographic saw a 2.5% increase in toy spending, making up 28.5% of the market [2]. Group 2: Product Evolution - The definition of "goods" in the toy industry is evolving, with潮玩 targeting consumers aged 15 to 40 who seek emotional value and personal expression through collectibles [5]. - Traditional toy brands are facing market share pressure, while collectible brands like LEGO are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards adult-oriented collectible toys [5]. Group 3: Market Trends - The blind box segment is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.2% in China's market from 2019 to 2023, outpacing overall toy market growth [7]. - The rise of social media has transformed the marketing landscape for toys, with a shift from traditional media to platforms that promote interactive and visually appealing products [7]. - The average daily usage of social media globally increased from 90 minutes to 143 minutes between 2012 and 2024, facilitating the emergence of new toy brands that leverage original IP and social media engagement [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The global toy market is relatively fragmented, with the top five players holding only 26.5% of the market share, allowing for opportunities for new brands to establish differentiated positions [8]. - Chinese潮玩 brands are positioned at a lower price point compared to U.S. counterparts, focusing on unique IP and catering to niche markets, including female-oriented潮玩 [8]. Group 5: Market Volatility - While the potential for domestic潮玩 to succeed internationally is promising, the market remains volatile, as evidenced by the fluctuating popularity of certain IPs like Disney's Lina Bell, which saw a rapid rise and subsequent decline in interest [9].