利润修复的持续性？——4月工业企业效益数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The profit recovery in April is primarily due to short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure on profits in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, driven by improvements in cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points [3][76]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - The cost rate for downstream consumer manufacturing increased by 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which is significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed weaker cost performance compared to previous years, with cost rates rising by 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and declining by 18.2 basis points to 87%, respectively [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant support to revenue due to infrastructure investment and export activities [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical sector experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export activities [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - The impact of tariffs on profitability may manifest with a lag, and the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors adds uncertainty to future profit recovery [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that the impact of profit margins on profits is greater than that of revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that after tariff implementation, profit growth may decline more sharply than revenue due to increased fixed costs and reduced asset turnover [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8%, 7.0%, and 2.9% year-on-year [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].