中金点睛·2025-05-27 23:39Core Viewpoint - The demand for large-bore engines is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing construction of AI-driven data centers, leading to a trend of domestic substitution across the entire industry chain [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global market for large-bore engines is projected to exceed 100 billion RMB in 2023, with a significant portion of the market dominated by foreign brands such as Cummins, Caterpillar, MTU, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [2][4]. - Large-bore engines, defined as those with a displacement of 16L or more and a power output of 550kW or more, are crucial for power generation, marine, and industrial applications [2][4]. Demand Growth - The demand for large-bore diesel engines is expected to grow due to the recovery of data center needs driven by AI, with the market for these engines in China projected to approach 10 billion RMB by 2025 and 41.1 billion RMB globally by 2026 [2][15]. - The average power of diesel generator sets is anticipated to increase from 1.4MW to 2.0MW, with prices rising from 2 million to 2.5-3 million RMB [14]. Domestic Substitution Trend - The market for large-bore engines is currently dominated by foreign brands, which hold approximately 80% of the market share, leaving significant room for domestic brands to grow [3][19]. - Domestic brands like Weichai, Yuchai, and Shangchai are making strides in technology and market share through acquisitions and partnerships, enhancing their competitiveness [19][20]. Supply Chain and Production Capacity - Foreign brands are expanding production capacity to meet the rising demand, with Caterpillar planning a 125% increase in capacity and Cummins investing $200 million in its facilities [17]. - Despite efforts to localize production, foreign brands still rely heavily on imported components, which may limit their growth potential [17][18]. Competitive Advantages of Domestic Brands - Domestic brands are expected to gain market share due to their higher cost-effectiveness, faster production organization, better after-sales service, and enhanced data security, which is increasingly important for AI data centers [19][20]. - The domestic market for large-bore engines is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% from 2024 to 2028 [15]. Future Market Projections - The global market for large-bore engines used in data centers is expected to reach 41.1 billion RMB by 2026 and 52.5 billion RMB by 2030, indicating robust growth prospects [15][16].