独家洞察 | 特朗普“美丽大法案”引发财政赤字担忧

Core Viewpoint - The "Beautiful Bill" tax reform, led by President Trump, aims to fulfill campaign promises related to tax cuts, defense spending, and immigration control, but raises concerns about increasing the federal deficit significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Reform Details - The bill extends corporate and individual tax cuts from 2017 and introduces new tax reductions for tips, overtime, and auto loans [1]. - It plans to increase defense spending while cutting green energy incentives and raising the eligibility threshold for low-income medical assistance and food aid to control federal spending [1]. Group 2: Deficit Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the federal deficit will total $21.1 trillion from 2025 to 2034, with the "Beautiful Bill" expected to add an additional $2.3 trillion, increasing the deficit by over 10% in the next decade [3]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, warning that the tax reform could lead to an additional $4 trillion structural deficit over the next ten years [3]. Group 3: Legislative Uncertainty - The bill will be reviewed by the Senate, where its passage remains uncertain due to criticism from some Republican senators regarding the timing of tax cuts and spending measures [3][4]. - The Senate is expected to vote on the bill in June, with a modified version potentially being passed by July 4, but significant uncertainties remain regarding its final form and impact [4]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The "Beautiful Bill" is likely to maintain high levels of fiscal deficit, with government debt as a percentage of GDP projected to rise from around 100% to 125% by 2034 [5]. - Increased government debt pressure and tariff disruptions may weaken the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds, affecting demand from overseas investors who hold 30% of U.S. debt [5].