随着美股财报季的开启，标普500指数在2025年第四季度目前的盈利增速为8.2%，这将是该指数连续第十 个季度实现同比盈利增长。鉴于大多数标普500公司报告的实际盈利高于市场预期，那么该指数在去年四 季度最终录得8.2%的盈利增长，其可能性有多大？ 基于历次财报季中盈利增速的平均上修幅度，我们认为，标普500指数去年四季度很可能至少实现14%的 盈利增长，从而连续第5个季度录得两位数的盈利增速。 首先要明确，当标普500指数公司在财报季公布的实际每股收益（EPS）高于市场预期时，该指数的整体 盈利增速就会上升，因为在增长率计算中，较高的实际EPS数字取代了原先较低的预期收益。举例而言， 某公司预计当季EPS为1.05美元，而去年同期EPS为1.00美元，那么该公司预计将报告5%的盈利增长。如 果该公司最终公布的实际EPS为1.10美元（较预期高出0.05美元），那么该公司当季的实际盈利增速将提 升至10%，比原先的预期增速高出5个百分点（5%+5%=10%）。 事实上，在过去40个季度中，有37个季度标普500指数的实际盈利增速高于季末的预期盈利增速。仅有 2020年第一季度、2022年第三季度和2022年第 ...

正值美股财报季，美国科技"七巨头"陆续披露2025年第四季度业绩。从财报结果来看，科技巨头去年四 季度整体增长依旧稳健，AI相关业务对收入与用户活跃度的拉动作用正在逐步显现。无论是广告效率、 云服务需求，还是企业级AI应用的渗透速度，管理层在业绩电话会上普遍释放出对AI中长期落地前景的 乐观预期。 但与此同时，市场的关注焦点正从"AI能做什么"，转向一个更现实的问题——巨额资本开支是否能够带 来与之匹配的回报。随着算力需求持续膨胀、基础设施建设周期被不断拉长，AI投资的节奏与兑现路 径，正在进入一个更为复杂、也更具结构性的阶段。 以Meta为例，该公司预计2026年资本支出上限将达到1350亿美元，较华尔街原有预期高出约20%，几乎 是上一年度投资规模的两倍。Meta将资本开支激增的主要原因归结为基础设施成本的全面上升，尤其是 为支持"超级智能实验室"及核心广告业务中 AI能力的深度嵌入。 尽管基础设施投入显著抬升，Meta仍预计2026年的经营利润将高于2025年。CEO 马克·扎克伯格明确表 示，公司将在全球范围内加速建设数据中心，推出新一代前沿AI模型，并持续将AI融入广告投放、内容 推荐与商业转化等核 ...

按资产类别划分的资金流向 截至2025年底，美国ETF的资产管理规模达到了创纪录的13.5万亿美元。12月单月资金流入2,280亿美 元，推动2025年全年资金流入达到创纪录的1.49万亿美元。此外，12月共有131只ETF新发行，使全年新 发基金数量达到1,167只，同样创下纪录。 | 资产类别 | AUM | 12 月资金流入 | 2025 年资金流入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 | 10, 615, 908 美元 | 173,087 美元 | 917,674 美元 | | 固定收益 | 2,271,860 美元 | 41.651 美元 | 436,905 美元 | | 其他 | 641,006 美元 | 14,196 美元 | 137,144 美元 | | 总计 | 13,528,775 美元 | 228,935 美元 | 1,491,723 美元 | 点击图片查看大图 点击图片查看大图 12月ETF资金流入达2,289亿美元，较11月增长54%。 按行业划分的资金流向 工业、非必需消费品和公用事业行业在去年12月吸引了最多资金流入，而科技、必需消费品和能源行业 则 ...

在全球避险情绪持续升温、央行购金潮方兴未艾的背景下，黄金本应是今年最"稳"的资产之一。然而，连 续走高的金价，近日却意外按下回调按钮。以纽交所COMEX黄金期货为例，自年初至1月29日（美东时 间）， COMEX黄金期货上涨了12.28%，但上周五（1月30日）单日就断崖式下跌8.88%，随后本周一 （2月2日）再跌0.90%，报4702.60美元/盎司。而现货黄金在1月30日下跌9.25%，创1980年4月1日以来 最大单日跌幅。 从直接触发因素来看，市场普遍认为，美国总统特朗普新提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为 下一任美联储主席是主要因素。沃什在其过往政策立场中被普遍视为"鹰派人物"，强调金融稳定与通胀控 制，且对长期宽松货币政策持相对审慎态度。市场担忧，如果沃什最终就任，美联储未来可能在降息的同 时推进缩表操作，这意味着美元流动性边际收缩，推动美元升值，对黄金、白银等不生息资产构成压制。 与此同时，黄金自身也面临较大的回调压力。近日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近期多次上调黄金、白 银期货的保证金比例以压制黄金投机，增加了交易者的资金成本，促使部分资金离场。而且自去年以来， 黄金价格 ...

美国电网正迎来数十年来最强劲的投资周期，这股浪潮源于超大规模数据中心和工业项目的兴起，它们正 在重塑全美的用电需求格局。这种趋势在美国核电公司安特吉覆盖的四个州——路易斯安那州、阿肯色 州、密西西比州和得克萨斯州——表现得尤为明显。这家公用事业公司已悄然崛起，成为美国人工智能时 代最重要的基础设施供应商之一。 路易斯安那州： Meta、多吉瓦天然气发电厂 和公式费率灵活性 路易斯安那州是安特吉获取并实现人工智能驱动需求商业化的最典型案例。 今年早些时候，路易斯安那州公共服务委员会批准了三座新的联合循环天然气发电厂，总装机容量约2.3 吉瓦，同时批准了为Meta的Hyperion数据中心提供电力所需的输电设施。该项目通过路易斯安那州的公 式费率计划（FRP）让安吉特实现了长期成本回收，允许公用事业公司在每台发电机组投运后立即将其计 入已商议好的电价,可以让电力公司更快、更确定地回收已批准投资的成本，减少频繁的调价的监管摩 擦。 这一监管结构以"速度"为核心：在一个单一监管程序中，将资源认证、电价机制设计和成本回收整合起 来，专门服务于客户驱动的大型项目。而类似的项目可能还有更多。路易斯安那州目前正在评估最高达3 ...

为期两天的美联储议息会议已于美东时间1月27日在华盛顿正式召开。按照既定日程，美联储将于1月28 日下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨3点）最新公布利率决议，主席鲍威尔将出席随后举行的新闻发布会。 当前市场普遍预期，美联储将在此次会议上维持基准利率当前3.50%-3.75%区间不变，这主要是因为最新 的经济数据并不支持降息。首先，美国就业市场虽有降温，但尚未恶化，且消费端表现依然稳健，这意味 着经济并未陷入典型的衰退前夜。更为关键的是通胀，美联储关注的PCE价格指数在11月回升至2.8%， 距离2%的长期目标仍有明显距离，若此时降息可能会加剧通胀。在此背景下，美联储显然缺乏"迫切降 息"的现实条件。 CME"美联储观察"工具显示，1月会议维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率仅为2.8%。 而将时间拉长至6月，降息25个基点的概率上升至47.8%，仍有超过三成概率预期利率继续维持不变。 中邮证券在最新发布的报告中表示，在去年下半年连续三次降息后，本周美联储议息会议或将迎来首次暂 停。在即将到来的会议上，鲍威尔主席可能会强调， 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）刚刚进行了三次降 息，对当前的货币政策立场感到 ...

Group 1: S&P 500 Earnings Outlook - Analysts expect a 15% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit growth [4] - The top five contributors to this growth include NVIDIA and Meta, with the "Big Seven" tech companies projected to grow earnings by 22.7% [4] - All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are expected to achieve year-over-year earnings growth, with five sectors likely to see double-digit increases [4] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Margins - The anticipated revenue growth rate for S&P 500 companies in 2026 is 7.2%, surpassing the 10-year average of 5.3% [5] - Ten out of eleven sectors are expected to see revenue growth, with the energy sector projected to decline [5] - The net profit margin for the S&P 500 is expected to reach 13.9%, the highest since 2008 [5] Group 3: U.S. ETF Market Growth - The U.S. ETF market is expanding, with Vanguard expected to surpass BlackRock as the largest ETF issuer [8] - The number and market share of actively managed ETFs are anticipated to grow, aided by new regulatory structures [8] - A significant portion of new money in ETFs is flowing into cryptocurrency-focused funds, reflecting a growing interest in digital assets [9] Group 4: AI in Financial Services - Generative AI and intelligent agent systems are becoming essential infrastructure for financial services, with a focus on improving efficiency and accuracy [11] - The adoption of AI is expected to face challenges in scalability and effectiveness, necessitating ongoing innovation [11] - Maintaining trust and demonstrating quantifiable returns on AI investments will be critical for organizations [12] Group 5: Private Equity Market Trends - Accessibility to private equity investments is increasing, with potential changes in regulations allowing broader participation [15] - Private equity is increasingly focused on technology-driven assets, particularly those related to AI [15] - The need for transparency and valuation discipline in private equity investments is becoming more pronounced [16] Group 6: Energy Sector Dynamics - Data centers are expected to significantly impact the electricity and utility sectors, with new demand anticipated in 2026 [17] - Public utility companies are likely to experiment with different rate structures to manage costs associated with data center services [18] - The oil and gas industry is expected to experience a divergence in performance due to supply and demand changes [19] Group 7: Global Policy Changes - Geopolitical factors, technological advancements, and legislative developments are shaping global policy directions [23] - The focus on digital asset regulation is shifting from "whether to regulate" to "how to implement regulation" [23] - Sustainable development regulations are evolving, emphasizing the integration of sustainability into business practices [25] Group 8: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management industry is expected to fully embrace AI and digitalization, moving beyond skepticism [27] - Institutions that effectively integrate third-party technology with proprietary data will drive efficiency and client engagement [27] - The competition between traditional wealth management firms and digital platforms is intensifying, focusing on service quality and trust [29] Group 9: Market Influences - The Federal Reserve's policies, consumer sentiment, and international stock valuations are key factors influencing market dynamics in 2026 [30] - Consumer confidence remains a critical indicator for economic activity, with potential government measures to stimulate spending being closely monitored [31] - International markets may continue to outperform U.S. markets, raising questions about ongoing valuation disparities [31]

Core Insights - The investment front office is becoming increasingly complex, requiring teams to switch between multiple applications, manage vast amounts of data, and make faster, more informed decisions [2] - The tools accumulated by institutions have become fragmented over time, creating productivity bottlenecks rather than empowering teams, highlighting the need to rethink the front office technology architecture [4] Fragmented Workflow Challenges - A common pain point for front office professionals is the excessive number of applications needed to execute their work, with research indicating that 95% of team members use four or more tools daily [5] - Dependence on multiple, often disconnected systems severely hampers efficiency, as analysts and portfolio managers spend valuable time switching between applications and manually transferring data [5] - Fragmentation also introduces operational risks, as manual data entry is prone to errors, and a lack of unified data sources can lead to inconsistent analysis and poor decision quality [5] Importance of Efficient Collaboration - In the high-risk environment of investment management, seamless collaboration is essential, yet many institutions struggle to facilitate effective cross-functional communication [6] - Disconnected tools and dispersed data sources hinder collaboration among portfolio managers, analysts, and traders, potentially leading to strategic misalignment and missed opportunities [6] Future of the Front Office: AI and Automation - Discussions around efficiency and productivity are increasingly focusing on the role of advanced technologies, with generative AI (GenAI) and intelligent automation reshaping front office operations [7] - Research shows that 76% of companies are experimenting with GenAI to optimize workflows, as these technologies can automate routine tasks like data aggregation and report generation, allowing professionals to focus on strategic activities [7] - GenAI can integrate vast amounts of unstructured data, uncover hidden patterns, and present insights in an easily understandable format, providing a competitive advantage for institutions that embrace these innovations [7] Path to a Modern Front Office - Transforming the front office technology architecture from a collection of disconnected systems into a cohesive engine for breakthrough results is a strategic imperative for institutions [8] - By addressing workflow fragmentation, enhancing team collaboration, and leveraging the power of artificial intelligence, organizations can create a more agile and efficient operational framework [8] - A newly launched e-book titled "From Bottlenecks to Breakthroughs: Rethinking Your Front Office Technology Architecture" offers actionable strategies for institutions to assess their current state, identify key improvement areas, and integrate cutting-edge technologies [8]

Group 1 - The article expresses New Year wishes from FactSet to all partners and users, emphasizing the importance of insights and knowledge in navigating the evolving landscape of 2026 [3][5]. - FactSet is launching a special New Year event where users can participate by sending greetings through the WeChat public account to win exclusive limited edition red envelopes [5][10]. - The event runs until January 25, 2026, with winners announced by January 30, 2026, highlighting the company's engagement with its audience [9][10]. Group 2 - The article encourages users to share their business challenges with FactSet, indicating the company's commitment to understanding and addressing client needs [13][15]. - FactSet promotes its integrated data, open platform, and point-to-point services, showcasing its offerings to enhance user experience and value creation [17]. - The call to action for likes and shares suggests a strategy to increase engagement and support for the company's content and services [18].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of transforming financial data into actionable intelligence due to the rapid growth of data and the challenges posed by unstructured formats and fragmented systems [1][4]. Group 1: Importance of Unstructured Data - Unstructured data holds significant insights that are often overlooked, as key information is trapped in sources like earnings call transcripts, regulatory filings, and news articles [1][4]. - The ability to access and utilize unstructured content is crucial for overcoming data fragmentation and ensuring readiness for AI applications [4][9]. Group 2: AI Integration and Workflow Automation - Seamless integration of AI is essential for unlocking the value of unstructured data, enabling standardization, vectorization, and information enhancement [3][5]. - The development of an AI-ready financial document corpus is underway, which includes global regulatory filings and earnings call transcripts, enriched with metadata and contextual layers to improve AI performance [4][5]. Group 3: Enhanced Decision-Making Capabilities - The integration of AI-ready data with Snowflake Intelligence allows users to conduct semantic searches and retrieve relevant documents, enhancing decision-making processes [5][9]. - By combining structured market data, proprietary holdings, and unstructured content into a unified view, deeper insights can be gained, leading to faster and more informed decisions [7][9]. Group 4: Flexibility and Interoperability - An open ecosystem enables financial institutions to access and leverage AI-ready content flexibly, whether within the Snowflake platform or through API integrations [9]. - The infrastructure's interoperability is vital for scaling data enhancement and ensuring that insight generation keeps pace with the growing volume and complexity of information [9]. Group 5: Real-Time Insights and Automation - Semantic search technology allows for quicker identification of emerging themes in news and text records compared to traditional datasets [11]. - Automated intelligence agents can track peer commentary, regulatory changes, and filing updates in real-time, extracting actionable insights from unstructured content [11].