由于此前联邦政府阶段性停摆，美国劳工统计局（BLS）本周二（12月16日）罕见地同时公布了10月和 11月非农就业报告。其中，10月数据因统计工作中断而推迟一个月发布。从这份报告来看，美国就业结 构仍在恶化。 对于明年美联储降息策略，在政策制定层面看，分歧依然存在。根据随利率决议公布的利率路径预测，多 数美联储官员预计2026年仅降息一次，也有部分官员认为不需要再降息；而期货市场的定价则显示，投 资者普遍押注2026年将降息两次。 报告显示，11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以 来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温，是本次报告中最受关注的信号。 而10月的数据更是明显偏弱。当月非农就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，这是过去六个月中第三次出现就 业"净减少"。BLS指出，10月就业下滑的主要原因并非企业大规模裁员，而是超过15万名联邦雇员离职 ——这些员工选择接受政府提供的延期买断方案，导致公共部门就业出现一次性拖累。另外，由于统计资 料不足，10月失业率并未公布，这也进一步增加了数据解读的难度。 多位经济学家将当前美国劳动力市场形容为一种"低解雇、低招聘"的状态 ...

混合云连接在金融行业正迅速普及，本文将探讨用于网络容量与数据分发的混合式实时基础架构的演进路 径及关键考量因素。我们还将探讨如何通过将传统的物理数据接入方式与云端服务相结合，帮助机构实现 更高水平的可扩展性、系统韧性和灵活性。此外，本文还将强调混合连接如何在无需购买新硬件或更新物 理基础设施的情况下，更快速地扩展网络容量。 实时市场示例 在近期的市场波动加剧、服务中断以及安全事件频发的背景下，我们自身的混合架构依然保持韧性，相比 之前的传统架构，混合架构能够更快地扩容和调整。下图展示了慧甚FactSet用于实时数据采集与分发的 架构示意。 点击图片查看大图 由于在传统物理架构中，扩展网络容量通常需要企业购买新硬件、配置路由器/交换机、协商新的ISP合 同，并对基础设施进行物理更新，因此整个过程可能需要数周（在某些情况下甚至长达数月）。作为替代 方案，采用诸如Amazon AWS Direct Connect和TNS Xpress网络等服务的混合架构，使企业能够转向更 加动态的运营模式。企业可以根据自身需求以及市场环境灵活调整带宽、连接方式和网络分段。 另一个重要因素在于，在传统物理架构下，企业通常需要提前预测 ...

美联储将于本周四凌晨公布12月议息会议结果，市场普遍预计本次将迎来25个基点的降息。 根据 CME"美联储观察"数据，降息概率高达88.6%，几乎已被市场视为"板上钉钉"。随着通胀回落、就业降温 信号增强，政策环境正走向宽松。 通胀持续降温 支持政策宽松 受此前美国政府关门影响，9月整体个人消费支出PCE通胀数据延迟一个多月才发布。该数据显示，美国9 月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，好于前值的2.7%。9月核心PCE物价 指数环比上涨0.2%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，低于前值的2.9%。数据显示，9月美国个人收 入超预期，但支出低于预期。美国消费者支出停滞不前，美国人在该国政府关门之前就已感到财务吃紧。 总体来看，通胀继续维持在2.8%的温和区间，距离美联储长期目标2%不远，为货币政策宽松铺平道路。 核心PCE被美联储视为衡量长期通胀趋势的关键指标，此次低于预期的数据为降息进一步提供空间。 就业市场出现疲态 结构性分化加深 劳动力市场方面，最新ADP就业数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私人企业平均每周新增就业 4,750人，较此前连续四周负增长有所改善 ...

随着企业重新评估如何实现高效扩张、拓展与合作伙伴的关系、保护超额收益，并应对日益复杂的运营环 境的背景下，外包交易持续增长。本文将分析推动外包交易发展的主因，并通过交易工作流程设计的视 角，提供评估外包交易未来的框架。 外包交易曾被视为新兴管理人由于缺乏资源而无法建立自有交易台时的解决方案。而如今，各类规模的企 业都在使用外包交易——无论是完全外包模式，还是将其作为补充交易能力的工具，都可用于应对各类挑 战。最新研究强调了外包交易的进展程度。根据Coalition Greenwich在2023年的研究，39%的买方受访 者认可外包交易来补充现有交易流程的价值，这一比例高于2020年的5%。 为了评估外包交易的下一步发展，我们必须考虑其崛起背后的宏观因素，以及未来在规模化支持外包交易 时所需的技术要求。 外包交易的现状 外包交易的最初驱动力简单直接——成本效益和运营减负。如今，其驱动因素已远不止于此。 随着外包交易的发展，服务提供商的多样性也随之增加，已经从单一资产专家扩展到覆盖多地区、多资产 的机构经纪商。与此同时，买家画像也发生了变化。大型资管公司现在将外包交易视为灵活能力和专业化 战略的组成部分。这与云计 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australian major banks are entering the November earnings season with strong momentum and high expectations, driven by robust credit growth, prudent deposit pricing strategies, and strong performance from government bonds and market sectors expected in the second half of 2025. However, analysts warn that this may indicate the peak of the current cycle, with revenue growth likely to slow in FY2026 and net interest margin pressure potentially increasing as interest rate cuts gradually take effect [2][11]. Group 1: Revenue Momentum - Loan growth remains robust among Australian major banks, particularly in the corporate and institutional lending sectors, with Westpac and NAB expected to lead in revenue performance due to better loan structures and stricter deposit pricing strategies [4]. - Consumer credit growth has exceeded expectations, with a rebound in housing loan demand offsetting weaker refinancing activity [4]. - Macquarie is anticipated to report solid half-year results due to increased market activity and strong client trading volumes, while regional banks like Bendigo & Adelaide Bank are also expected to achieve steady growth [4]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for Australian banks is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in FY2025, supported by deposit repricing, strong performance in New Zealand operations, and a shift towards higher-yielding corporate loans [5]. - However, this resilience in NIM is not expected to last long-term, with analysts predicting downward pressure in FY2026 due to interest rate cuts, narrowing deposit spreads, and diminishing returns from loan portfolios [5][6]. Group 3: Cost and Efficiency Focus - Cost control has become a primary competitive focus as FY2026 approaches, with upcoming earnings reports reflecting restructuring costs, wage inflation, and technology investments [7]. - Market attention will shift to the credibility of cost-cutting plans announced by major banks, with ANZ's new management seen as the most aggressive in planning significant job cuts [7]. Group 4: Credit Quality - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, asset quality remains strong, with low loan loss rates and stable delinquency rates, supported by additional provisions accumulated post-pandemic [8]. - A slight increase in provisioning expenses is expected in FY2026, but they will still be at historically low levels, with some banks likely to release provisions in FY2025 [8]. Group 5: Capital Management - Balance sheets remain robust, but the market does not expect significant capital returns in the upcoming earnings reports, with Westpac's remaining share buyback plan being a focal point [9]. - The common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio is expected to remain above regulatory minimums, with NAB and CBA in relatively strong positions [9]. Group 6: Valuation Pressure - Current forward P/E ratios for Australian bank stocks range from 19 to 22 times, significantly above historical averages, reflecting strong earnings performance and market recognition of the sector's defensive attributes [10]. - However, high valuations imply that any earnings miss could lead to significant downward pressure on stock prices, with many institutional investors favoring banks like ANZ and Westpac for their cost-cutting potential [10]. Group 7: Key Dates and Focus Points - Key earnings dates and focus points for major banks include: - Westpac (WBC) on November 3: sustainability of NIM, UNITE project execution, capital outlook [12] - National Bank (NAB) on November 6: corporate loan margins, SME competition, expense guidance [12] - Macquarie (MQG) on November 7: market revenue trends, asset management profitability structure [12] - ANZ Bank (ANZ) on November 10: impact of restructuring, institutional banking performance [12] - Commonwealth Bank (CBA) on November 11: deposit margin trends, returns from loan portfolios, collective litigation provisions [12] - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank on November 11: housing loan competition, productivity improvement measures, margin management [12]

融环境依旧宽松。他补充说，当前的加息并不是"踩刹车"，而是为确保通胀稳定在2%目标附近所做的必 要准备。他同时警告，如果加息过晚，日本可能面临更严重的通胀压力，被迫更激烈地调整政策。 机构观点方面，野村证券关注两个关键信号：一是植田对于明年春季工资谈判的最新评估。如果他对薪资 上涨表达乐观态度，市场将把这视为12月加息的强烈暗示；二是若他上调对核心通胀的判断，意味着通 胀已更接近2%，将被视为进一步的鹰派倾向。 华侨银行策略师亦指出，市场对日本央行即将加息的押注正在推升日元，但日元能否持续反弹仍取决于更 明确的政策指引。该行认为，植田的讲话更像是潜在加息前的"赛前准备"，12月或1月采取行动的可能性 正在上升。华侨银行预计日本央行将在12月加息，但随后的加息进程仍可能非常缓慢。若要支撑日元的 持续复苏，央行需提供更强指引，同时政府需展现更严格的财政纪律。 欢迎长按识别下方二维码， 日本央行行长植田和男本周一（12月1日）在名古屋举行的新闻发布会上明确表示，日本央行将在12月18 日至19日的货币政策会议上讨论加息的可能性。他进一步指出，希望在将政策利率提升至0.75%后，再进 一步阐述未来的加息路径。作为全球 ...

黄仁勋回应： 这不是泡沫 而是三次平台级转型叠加 英伟达上周三（11月19日）公布远超市场预期的三季度财报：营收达570.1亿美元，同比暴增62%，不仅 击败分析师预期的551.9亿美元，公司给出的下一财季指引更是高达650亿美元，同样高于市场预估的624 亿美元。如此亮眼的数据，让英伟达在当日的盘后交易一度飙涨超6%，管理层甚至罕见放出"从今年年初 到2026年12月，Blackwell和Rubin芯片有望带来5000亿美元营收"的豪言。 然而，狂欢只持续了不到24小时。次日（11月20日）开盘，英伟达股价高开5%至196美元后快速跳水， 最终收跌近3%至180.98美元，盘中跌幅一度超过7%，创下一个月来最低收盘价。英伟达的急转直下也拖 累标普500指数大跌约3%，反应市场对科技板块的风险偏好明显降温。 为何英伟达这一"史诗级"财报没能撑住市场情绪？有市场机构指出，英伟达出色的销售数据并不能完全证 明AI大潮的可持续性。市场对"AI泡沫"的争议再次被推到台前，"AI投资的回报率到底在哪里？"不少投 资者担忧，当前AI的火热，是否正在走向一种"只见铁锹不见黄金"的循环式繁荣。就像当年的加州淘金 热一样，铁锹 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the inefficiency in investment banking, where junior bankers spend up to 40% of their time on manual repetitive tasks, which has become a weakness in a competitive environment with rising client expectations and shrinking profit margins [2][4] - It emphasizes the importance of modernizing workflows through technology to free up time for strategic value creation for clients [4][6] Identifying Barriers to Strategic Execution - 60% of senior bankers report that junior staff waste significant time on data collection and administrative tasks instead of revenue-generating analysis [5] - Junior bankers face challenges in balancing multiple projects, with inefficient processes and fragmented tools being major obstacles [5] - These inefficiencies lead to missed opportunities, as time spent on manual tasks could be redirected towards deeper analysis and client relationship building [5] Importance of Quantifying Change - By adopting better technological solutions, bankers can save up to 10 hours per week, which can be redirected to activities that directly promote performance growth [6] - When asked how to utilize this saved time, 57% of junior bankers indicated they would focus on creating more detailed and customized client presentations, 50% would seek new business opportunities, and 49% would enhance client relationships through more frequent communication [6] The Impact of Technology Investment - Feedback underscores the profound impact of technology investments, allowing junior bankers to shift from low-value administrative tasks to strategic tasks that influence transaction outcomes and client satisfaction [7] Where Should Forward-Looking Institutions Invest? - The article identifies three key capabilities that form the foundation of a modern strategic technology system: 1. AI-driven insights and analysis to enhance efficiency and analytical advantage [8] 2. Intelligent workflow automation to allow junior bankers to focus on strategic analysis and client recommendations [8] 3. Seamless system integration to provide a unified data source, enhancing data quality and collaboration [8] Strengthening Talent Value Proposition - 63% of senior bankers believe that a robust technology system is crucial for attracting and retaining talented junior staff [8] - A modern technological environment reduces time-consuming manual labor and allows junior staff to engage in high-value work, reflecting the institution's forward-thinking approach and commitment to employee growth [8] Future Outlook - Industry leaders are likely to prioritize technology modernization as a strategic focus in the coming years, investing in AI, automation, and integrated systems to enhance resilience and lay the groundwork for long-term growth [9]

Core Insights - The article focuses on the synchronized performance of private credit and private real estate over the past two decades, highlighting the importance of analyzing their consistent trends [1][6]. Fundraising Comparison - A comparison of fundraising activities between credit and real estate funds from 2000 to 2022 in North America, Western Europe, and globally shows that both strategies have exhibited a high degree of consistency in fundraising amounts [3][6]. - The most notable divergence occurred in 2016, where credit fundraising exceeded real estate by $14 billion, while the difference between the two strategies generally remained within a $4 billion range [6]. Market Preferences - Despite the consistent fundraising trends, real estate has been more favored, with real estate fundraising exceeding credit in 14 out of the past 22 years [6]. - The analysis indicates that real estate represents a larger and more stable market within private investments, particularly highlighted during the financial/mortgage crisis in the late 2000s when real estate fundraising hit a low point [6]. Investment Overlap - There exists a significant overlap in investment areas between the two strategies, as indicated by the "credit-real estate" intersection in the Cobalt database, where both strategies often engage in similar projects or transactions [6]. Future Outlook - Preliminary data for 2023-2025 suggests that the fundraising trend will continue, with annual fundraising amounts for both strategies not differing by more than $300 million [7]. - Given over 20 years of historical data, this trend is expected to remain reliable and persist under various economic conditions, including changes in interest rates or inflation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has ended with a temporary funding bill, but underlying issues such as rising debt and political conflicts remain unresolved, posing risks for future stability [1][4][8]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The shutdown concluded on November 12, with a temporary funding bill allowing most government agencies to operate until January 30, 2026, but core disagreements on healthcare spending persist, indicating potential future shutdowns [3][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Risks - The shutdown has highlighted the escalating U.S. debt crisis, with public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, significantly above the average for developed economies [4]. - During the shutdown, U.S. government debt increased from $37.4 trillion to $38 trillion, exacerbating fiscal risks and limiting investments in critical areas such as education and infrastructure [4][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Post-shutdown, the market is focused on the timely release of economic data, particularly for October, which may be delayed or noisy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [6][7]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has surged from $300 billion in July to nearly $1 trillion in November, suggesting improved liquidity conditions as the government reopens [7]. - Political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties remain, with a 30% market expectation of another shutdown by the end of January 2026, as both parties may leverage the situation for negotiations [7][8].