美联储近期应该降息吗？一度预计2025年降息100个基点，实际如何？｜国际

Group 1 - The core debate among U.S. financial officials regarding whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates is marked by differing opinions, with some advocating for a rate cut to support economic growth while others caution against it due to uncertainties surrounding tariff impacts [3][4]. - William Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, publicly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that doing so would improve the real estate market [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed caution, indicating that significant changes in trade and immigration policies create uncertainty for the Fed's rate decisions, emphasizing the need to observe economic data and trade negotiations before making a move [4][5]. Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut have fluctuated, with traders previously estimating a 56% probability of a rate cut in September, but this uncertainty has increased following recent comments from Kashkari [5]. - Wall Street institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays, maintain a more optimistic outlook on rate cuts, predicting that inflation from tariffs may not persist, allowing for potential rate cuts by the end of 2025 and multiple cuts in 2026 [5]. - The Fed began its current rate cut cycle in September 2024, reducing rates by 50 basis points initially, followed by additional cuts, but the pace of future cuts may be slower than previously anticipated due to unexpected political developments [8].