芯片关税，影响超大

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 25% tariff on semiconductor chips by the Trump administration could significantly harm the U.S. economy, leading to a projected GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years, which is approximately 4.8% of the GDP in the tenth year [1]. Economic Impact - The ITIF report estimates that the first year of the tariff could result in a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth [1]. - Cumulative tax revenue losses for the U.S. government could reach $165 billion over ten years, exceeding the revenue generated from the tariffs by several billion dollars [1]. Consumer Impact - The average American's standard of living is projected to decrease by $122 in the first year due to the tariff, accumulating to $4,208 over ten years [1]. Industry-Specific Effects - The increased cost of semiconductors will raise the expenses associated with training AI models, potentially diminishing U.S. competitiveness in the AI sector, while China may gain a leading position due to substantial subsidies in AI and semiconductor industries [1]. - In the automotive sector, the report indicates that the value of semiconductors in each vehicle could rise to $4,000 by 2030, an increase of 800% from 2020, which will particularly impact the electric vehicle industry that requires significantly more semiconductors [2]. - The U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry is still in its early stages, producing only 12% of the global semiconductor supply, which could lead to supply chain challenges if automotive manufacturers shift to domestic suppliers [2]. Supply Chain Considerations - TSMC's Arizona subsidiary has urged the U.S. government to carefully consider the implications of semiconductor tariffs on the overall supply chain and national security interests, seeking potential tax exemptions [2].