张瑜：黄金隐含“秩序重构”指数：捕捉全球秩序重构的交易信号

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the current era resembles a once-in-a-century global order restructuring period [2][9] - It highlights the limitations of traditional gold pricing models, which have failed to adequately explain recent price movements [4][12] - The article introduces the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) to quantify market expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][10] Group 1: Traditional Gold Pricing Models - Traditional financial theories assert that gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations [4][12] - The relationship between real interest rates and gold prices has significantly weakened since 2022, with real rates rising from -1% to 2% while gold prices increased from $1,800 to over $3,000 [13][19] - The US dollar index has shown limited explanatory power for gold price movements, as it fluctuated within a narrow range while gold prices surged over 80% [16][19] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Restructuring - The remarkable increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, characterized by currency diversification, geopolitical reshaping, and financial market rebalancing [5][22] - Central bank gold purchases reached a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024 [23] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [26][28] Group 3: Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) - The GIORI aims to quantify the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks associated with global order restructuring [6][31] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating that market expectations have surpassed traditional cyclical perspectives [7][42] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the Iranian Revolution and the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting its relevance in assessing market sentiment [46][47][48]