国泰海通 · 晨报0529｜固收、交运、军工、国别研究

Group 1: Convertible Bond Market - The core issue in the convertible bond market is the credit shock risk, which is deemed controllable despite a significant number of downgrades in 2024 due to a prolonged decline in the equity market [1][2] - In June 2024, 64 convertible bonds were downgraded, with a peak of 40 downgrades in June alone, compared to 25 and 26 in June 2022 and 2023 respectively, indicating a growing concern among investors [1][2] - The underlying reasons for the decline in convertible bonds include stricter delisting rules, exposure to credit risks, weakened expectations for underlying stocks, and a large number of bonds approaching their redemption period [1][2][3] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability in Q2 2025, driven by high passenger traffic and rising ticket prices, despite a 17% drop in domestic aviation fuel prices [5][6] - OPEC+ is anticipated to accelerate production, which will enhance oil transportation demand and stabilize freight rates, with VLCC TCE rates remaining above $40,000 [6][7] - The highway sector is experiencing steady growth, with a 3.9% increase in personnel flow and a 5.4% increase in freight volume in Q1 2025, supported by policy optimizations and legislative changes [6][7] Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is witnessing a decline, with China's first aircraft carrier undergoing sea trials and increased attention on the J-10CE fighter jet, which has gained international interest due to its cost-effectiveness [9][10] - The U.S. is investing significantly in missile defense systems, indicating a shift in defense strategies towards the Indo-Pacific region, which may lead to increased military spending [10][11] - The long-term outlook for the military industry remains positive due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the need for advanced military capabilities [11] Group 4: Southeast Asia Economic Trends - Southeast Asian economies are showing resilience, particularly in consumer sectors, with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia actively increasing exports, especially to the U.S. [13][14] - Stock markets in Southeast Asia have largely recovered from tariff impacts, with Vietnam and Indonesia performing better than Malaysia and Thailand [13][14] - There is a growing focus on semiconductor development in Southeast Asia, with countries enhancing support for this sector amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [13][14]