芯片关税，影响几何？

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to be the fourth largest by market value in 2024, following high-tech, life sciences, and media and entertainment sectors [1] - The industry plays a critical role in supporting key sectors such as consumer electronics, automotive, aerospace, and defense, forming the foundation of many national security technologies [1] Trade Measures and Tariffs - Countries are exploring significant tariffs and export restrictions on materials, with the U.S. imposing over 100% tariffs on imports from China amid escalating trade tensions [4][5] - China, producing approximately 95% of gallium and germanium, announced export restrictions on these materials, exacerbating supply vulnerabilities [4] - The geopolitical climate has prompted semiconductor companies and downstream participants to strategize to maintain production and profit margins [4] Impact of Tariffs on Value Chain - Companies face a dilemma of absorbing tariff-induced cost increases or passing them on to end consumers, with a focus on fundamental assessments of their supply chains potentially enhancing resilience [5][13] - The U.S. updated import tariffs for around 90 countries, with China being the only exception, and increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, affecting large construction projects [7][10] Tariff Assessment Factors - Businesses must consider the value-add stage of tariffs (chip level vs. end-device level) and how to define the country of origin for products [13][30] - The final assembly point of products, such as smartphones, determines where tariffs are applied, impacting the overall cost structure [13][16] Strategies for Companies - Companies can adopt three potential strategies: absorbing or passing on tariff costs, reconfiguring supply chains, and enhancing government relations [36][37] - Absorbing costs may be feasible in less elastic demand sectors, while passing costs to consumers could be more challenging in price-sensitive markets [38][35] - Reconfiguring supply chains may involve relocating manufacturing to non-tariff regions, although this may not be economically viable for all companies [40] Long-term Considerations - Companies should proactively plan for evolving tariff policies and consider establishing a tariff excellence center to integrate information and explore new strategies [44]