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股指期货全面贴水该引起我们的注意吗?
私募排排网·2025-05-29 07:52

Core Viewpoint - The significant basis management challenges in stock index futures since 2024 are attributed to the historical low basis spreads, particularly influenced by the liquidity crisis in small-cap stocks and the concentrated exercise of out-of-the-money options, indicating strong short-selling pressure from institutional traders [2]. Group 1: Basis Spread Analysis - As of May 23, the annualized basis spreads for the main stock index futures of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 reached 11.08%, 19.08%, and 23.43% respectively [2]. - The substantial basis spread in the CSI 50 and CSI 300 is primarily driven by seasonal dividends, with the annualized hedging costs for the current quarter being -0.27% and 2.86% respectively, suggesting limited impact from upcoming dividends [4][5]. Group 2: Small-Cap Stock Concerns - Despite the influence of dividends, the basis spreads for CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures remain at historically low levels, indicating a declining risk appetite for small-cap indices among large institutional investors [7]. - The number of neutral strategy products has remained high, with 6,569 products registered since December 31, 2019, but only 2,326 have been liquidated early, suggesting a significant amount of capital is still engaged in stock index futures [7][8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Institutional Behavior - The market has shifted from technology stocks to large-cap blue-chip stocks, driven by macroeconomic events and policy changes, which has increased institutional demand for stable growth assets [10]. - The current high basis costs may erode the alpha portion of neutral strategies, while the potential for profit in arbitrage strategies is lower due to increased volatility and borrowing costs [11][13].