行业透视｜现房销售一旦落地，对代建市场有何影响？

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards selling completed properties is fundamentally changing the funding model for real estate companies, leading to a significant decline in investment returns and a push towards light-asset development strategies [2][4][5] Group 1: Impact of Current Housing Sales - The current housing sales model necessitates developers to have sufficient self-funding, resulting in longer development cycles and decreased capital turnover [5][6] - This shift is prompting companies to adjust their business portfolios, with a noticeable move towards light-asset operations such as construction management [5][6] - Over 100 real estate companies have engaged in project management, with 49 establishing independent management platforms, indicating a growing trend towards specialized construction management [5][6] Group 2: Land Transaction Trends - The decline in land transactions and the need for local government financing will lead to an increased proportion of residential construction management projects [7][8] - Despite a decrease in land acquisition, the overall scale of the construction management market is expected to remain stable, with a focus on commercial projects [7][8] Group 3: Market Penetration by City Tier - The penetration rate of construction management is expected to rise, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-tier cities will stabilize and third- and fourth-tier cities may decline [9][10] - First-tier cities have historically low penetration rates, but this is expected to increase as companies seek to engage in local government projects to optimize land resources [10] Group 4: Changes in Construction Management Models - The trend towards "small equity operation" in construction management is increasing, necessitating adjustments in payment structures and timelines [12] - Companies are facing challenges related to funding pressures and extended return cycles, requiring a re-evaluation of payment rules linked to project milestones [12] Group 5: Intensifying Competition in Construction Management - The construction management sector is experiencing intensified competition, with a potential for a "second" round of industry reshuffling as new entrants gain market share [13][14] - Companies must enhance their service capabilities and operational efficiency to remain competitive, leveraging digital tools to improve project delivery [14][15] - Establishing long-term partnerships with local government platforms is crucial for aligning interests and ensuring project success [16]