【广发资产研究】一张图看懂《全球资产定价低估了美国衰退风险》

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. by global asset pricing, emphasizing the need for new asset allocation strategies in the context of the debt cycle [3][16]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The current pricing levels of U.S. equities significantly deviate from the implied risks indicated by recent soft data, suggesting a potential mispricing in the market [4][8]. - The U.S. Soft CAI reflects subjective expectations of future economic conditions from businesses and consumers, which may not align with actual market performance [11][12]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Recent market sentiment has been overly optimistic, as indicated by the VIX futures returning to a contango state, suggesting rising expectations of volatility and accumulated risks [12][14]. - The BNP global risk premium index has reached historical low levels, indicating high market sentiment towards U.S. equities [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article suggests a contrarian approach to U.S. equity allocation, focusing on defensive sectors in light of the current market conditions and potential risks [11][12]. - The analysis highlights the importance of monitoring economic policy uncertainty and its impact on equity risk premiums, which are currently misaligned with soft data indicators [9][10].