戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 经济数据发布将受到影响。 联储10月降息的预期。 就高物价等经济问题、外交、国际 安全保障问题在党内进行充分讨论。 假期海内 外安间 海外 国内 国庆假期人流量活跃度高于 国庆假期国内商品房成交偏弱 2025年国庆档总票房 去年 据iFinD,国庆假期期间 突破15亿元 据交通运输部,2025年10月 央行:中国9月末黄金储备报 (9.29-10.5) 30大中城市商品 据iFinD,国庆假期前 7406万查司 环比增加4万查司 5日(中秋国庆假期第5日), 房成交套數(二线城市)教量 7日(10.1-10.6),全 央行数据显示,中国9月末黄金 全社会跨区域人员流动量 环比下跌幅度较大,整体成交 国国庆档总票房突破15 储备报7406万查司(约2303.523 29119.72万人次,环比下降 仍相对偏弱。 吨),环比增加4万盘司(约1.24 3.4%,同比(2024年国庆假 吨),为连续第11个月增持黄金。 期第5日）增长3.4%。 8月末黄金储备报7402万盎司。 数据来源:交通运输部、iF ...

Global Macro Trends - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, leading to structural differentiation in global asset prices, with risk assets performing strongly overall but with notable differences among categories. Gold and U.S. stocks reached new highs, while Bitcoin experienced a significant decline [3][9]. - Economic data released on September 15 indicated a marginal slowdown in China's macroeconomic growth, with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all showing slight declines compared to previous values, suggesting ongoing pressure on the economic fundamentals and increasing the likelihood of future easing policies [3][9]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm characterized by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in AI industries. This strategy includes allocations to Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term treasuries, Chinese convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][12]. - A tactical approach suggests that the A-share market is driven by domestic funds, similar to the microcosm of the 2014-2015 market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies. The strategy involves reducing high-dividend allocations and increasing exposure to more elastic assets [5][12]. Key Economic Indicators - The report highlights several key economic indicators and events, including the upcoming release of China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs, U.S. ADP employment changes, and Eurozone CPI data, all of which are deemed important for market participants [15][16]. - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has been positive but shows a declining trend, indicating that recent economic reports have been weaker than market expectations [21][23]. Financial Conditions - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a more relaxed overall financial environment, while the SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating some tightening in dollar liquidity [4][26]. - The report notes an increase in expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [24][25]. Market Sentiment - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential risks from overseas markets as the domestic holiday approaches, advising on risk control measures [3][9]. - The ongoing trend of household savings moving into the stock market is expected to favor thematic investments aligned with high-quality growth directions, with a focus on maintaining high liquidity and growth potential in the A-share market [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategies for global asset allocation and stock market outlook amidst the transition of global order from old to new [3]. Group 1 - The event titled "Global New and Old Order Transition: Asset Allocation and Stock Market Outlook" is scheduled for September 16, 2023, from 18:00 to 20:00 [3]. - The event is organized by Northeast Financial University and its associated institutions, indicating a focus on financial education and research [8]. - The speaker, Dai Kang, is a highly recognized figure in the investment analysis field, having received multiple prestigious awards from 2014 to 2023, including the New Fortune Best Analyst and the Golden Bull Award [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, attributing it to three main factors: financial attributes, safe-haven demand, and currency attributes, all of which have seen favorable conditions recently [3][5]. Group 1: Financial Attributes - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased since the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting at the end of August, with a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut anticipated for the September 18 meeting [3]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Demand - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is becoming evident, with rising inflation and weak employment contributing to short-term stagflation and long-term recession risks, thereby increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5]. Group 3: Currency Attributes - A weaker dollar and the trend of de-globalization are undermining the credibility of the dollar, while global central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves for ten consecutive months [5][7].

Global Macro Trends - Global risk assets are under pressure due to economic slowdown and geopolitical trade uncertainties, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold perform well [3][10] - The U.S. manufacturing activity in August shows increased contraction, raising recession concerns, alongside trade policy uncertainties impacting market volatility [3][10] - The market maintains high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, despite rising concerns over fiscal deficits and Fed independence pushing up U.S. Treasury yields [3][10] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China has contracted for five consecutive months, indicating weak economic momentum, yet A-shares and Hong Kong stocks show resilience [3][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of long-term and tactical asset allocations [4][16] - Strategic allocations include Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term Treasuries, convertible bonds, and equities from Southeast Asia, particularly India, alongside high-dividend and AI-related assets [4][16] - Tactical allocations suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend stock proportions in favor of more elastic investments [5][16] Key Economic Indicators - The SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating tightening liquidity in the dollar funding market [4][18] - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a slight easing in overall financial conditions [4][20] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index remains positive but shows signs of weakening, indicating that economic data is marginally underperforming market expectations [4][24] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, and CPI, as well as U.S. PPI and retail sales figures [17]

Group 1 - The article discusses a liquidity bull market investment strategy, emphasizing an optimized barbell strategy to enhance flexibility [7][10] - It highlights the trend of "deposit migration" as a driving force behind the liquidity bull market [10] - The current liquidity bull market is compared to the theme growth rotation bull market that followed the style switch in 2015 [10] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should focus on thematic growth rotation investments and increase allocation to flexible industry varieties [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the analysis of the current market environment and investment strategies during a bull market phase [1][2][5]. - The article discusses the factors that led to the emergence of the current market rally, emphasizing the importance of understanding these factors for future investment decisions [5]. - It highlights the ongoing trend of residents moving their deposits, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and its implications for the financial market [5]. Group 2 - A comparison is made between the current market environment and that of 2015, noting key differences that investors should be aware of [5]. - The article provides insights on how to effectively allocate assets during a bull market, suggesting strategies to capitalize on the prevailing market conditions [5].

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Equity assets significantly outperformed commodities and bonds from August 11 to August 19, leading investors to increase equity risk exposure while maintaining a defensive stance in the bond market [3][9] - Global market risk appetite has shown fluctuations, with recent US-Russia talks boosting sentiment, but concerns arose following Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a retreat in US rate cut expectations [3][9] - In the domestic market, the "deposit migration" phenomenon has positively impacted equity performance, supported by easing external tensions and the effectiveness of domestic "anti-involution" policies [3][10] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - The new investment paradigm emphasizes a "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response to the evolving landscape, driven by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [4][14] - The strategic focus remains on an all-weather optimized barbell strategy, including Chinese government bonds, US short-term treasuries, convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend Chinese stocks, and gold [4][14] - Tactical adjustments suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend allocations in favor of more elastic assets [5][14] Key Data: Global Economic Indicators and Event Calendar - A calendar of significant global economic data releases from August 24 to September 7 includes key indicators such as China's official composite PMI and the Eurozone's unemployment rate, highlighting their importance for market participants [15][17] Focus Charts: Global Asset Dynamics Tracking - The report includes various charts tracking financial conditions, economic surprises, and market indices, indicating a mixed outlook for the US economy and potential volatility in consumer confidence [21][24][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of renewed recession concerns in the US and tariff disruptions on global risk assets, leading to a decline in industrial metals and equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries have risen [3][4] - The article discusses the "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response for asset allocation in a fragile era, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach that includes Chinese government bonds, US short-term Treasuries, and high-dividend stocks in China, among others [4][11] - It notes that the Chinese risk assets have outperformed those in the US, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its upward trend supported by liquidity easing [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines key economic data and events scheduled from August 10 to August 24, including important indicators such as the US CPI and Eurozone GDP [12][15] - It provides a detailed tracking of global asset dynamics, indicating a widening SOFR-OIS spread and a decline in the US financial conditions index, reflecting a tightening of overall financial conditions in the US [18][20] - The article mentions that the US consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations, which typically correlates with increased volatility in US equities [28][31]

Group 1 - The adjustment of the U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted market expectations, indicating a shift in economic outlook [10] - Understanding the future trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial, with discussions on whether a recession can be avoided [10] - Following a substantial correction in the U.S. stock market, there are considerations on whether this presents a good buying opportunity [10] Group 2 - Future trends in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices are essential for investment strategies [10]