国泰海通｜国别研究：欧洲投资全景洞察：拨云见日，掘金多瑙（二）

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the investment opportunities in Europe amidst the challenges and changes in the global geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for Chinese companies to explore diverse investment avenues in Europe [1]. Group 1: European Economic Situation - The European economy has likely passed its recent low point, with industrial production gradually recovering since Q1 2025, although consumer confidence remains low [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in April showed a rebound, and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at historical lows since 2000 [2]. - Inflation in Europe is expected to be controlled in 2025, with a target return to 2%, providing room for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Changes and Cooperation - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, presenting new cooperation opportunities between China and Europe, especially with the easing of U.S. tariffs and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. - The relationship between the U.S. and Europe has changed, with a noticeable shift towards a more balanced relationship between China and Europe, as evidenced by the cancellation of all engagement restrictions in May 2025 [3]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - The worst period for FDI in Europe may be in the past, as macroeconomic factors that previously suppressed FDI are easing [4]. - FDI inflows have been declining, particularly in Western Europe, while Southern and Northern Europe have seen significant growth [10]. - In 2023, Europe experienced a net outflow of FDI amounting to $341.6 billion, with Western Europe showing the largest decline at -5.9% [10]. Group 4: Chinese Investment in Europe - Chinese FDI in Europe remains high but is shifting from manufacturing to sectors like finance and retail, indicating potential for growth in technology, manufacturing, and consumer services [5][32]. - The distribution of Chinese investments across European countries has become more balanced, with increased focus on Luxembourg and the UK [5][32]. - In 2023, the investment flow from China to Europe reached historical peaks in finance and retail, with manufacturing investment share declining significantly from previous years [34]. Group 5: Investment Environment and Opportunities - Europe offers a favorable investment environment due to its infrastructure, capital markets, and educated workforce, despite recent geopolitical tensions [26][27]. - Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southern Europe, are emerging as attractive investment destinations due to their market demand and stable business environments [11]. - The EU has been actively promoting policies to attract foreign investment, ensuring that foreign investors receive national treatment and benefits similar to domestic companies [30].