［5月29日］指数估值数据(全球股市大涨；A股是分红市还是融资市；红利估值表更新；指数日报更新)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting a shift towards a dividend-focused market as opposed to a financing-driven one, with significant growth in dividend payouts and a decrease in new stock issuances. Market Performance - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the closing rating at 5 stars, close to 4.9 stars [1] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) are rising, with small-cap stocks showing greater elasticity [2] - Growth styles are generally on the rise [3] - Technology and healthcare sectors are leading the gains, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is also seeing overall increases, with technology stocks leading the charge [5] Earnings Recovery - In Q1 of this year, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown a recovery in earnings growth [6] - Notably, technology and healthcare stocks have experienced significant year-on-year earnings growth, becoming leading sectors post-Spring Festival [7] - Other sectors are expected to enter a phase of earnings recovery as well [8] Tariff Impact - The recent market rise is partially attributed to tariff-related developments, particularly the U.S. federal court's organization of Trump's tariff policy effective April 2 [9] - The increase in tariffs was a major factor leading to a global stock market decline in early April, and the obstruction of these tariffs is beneficial for the global stock market [10] - Recently, the global stock market has largely recovered from the declines experienced in early April [11] - However, Trump remains an unstable factor, with potential for further policy changes [12] Dividend Market Transition - A significant change in A-shares over recent years is the encouragement for listed companies to increase their dividend payout ratios [13] - The dividend payout ratio indicates the percentage of profits distributed as dividends [14] - Historically, A-shares distributed 30-40% of profits as dividends, which has increased to 40-50% in recent years [16][17] - The total dividend payout for A-shares in 2024 is projected to reach a historical high of approximately 2.4 trillion [18] - The frequency of dividends has also increased, with more companies distributing dividends twice a year and some experimenting with quarterly dividends [19] Financing Trends - In previous years, A-shares experienced a surge in new stock issuances, but this has significantly decreased following regulatory changes [20] - The total financing from new IPOs in A-shares for 2024 is expected to be only 67.3 billion [21] - Including convertible bonds and additional financing, the total financing amount is around 288 billion [22] - The opportunities for new stock and bond issuances have diminished considerably in recent years [23] - A-shares have transitioned into a standard dividend market, with total dividends far exceeding total financing [24] Future Projections - For 2025, the dividend payout ratio is expected to continue increasing, with total dividends projected to grow further [25] - New stock issuance is anticipated to remain low in 2025 [26] - The issuance of REITs has increased compared to previous years, but REITs are also high-dividend products, suggesting that over time, REITs will also see dividends surpass financing amounts [27] - It is expected that 2025 will maintain the trend of total dividends exceeding total financing [28] - This shift represents a positive long-term direction for A-shares, moving from a financing market to a dividend market [29] Fund Dividend Trends - The increase in stock dividends has also led to a rise in fund dividends [33] - In previous years, there was debate over whether funds should distribute dividends, but this controversy has diminished [34] - The number and scale of regularly distributing funds have grown significantly, reflecting high investor demand for such funds [36] - From early 2025 to mid-May 2025, the total amount of fund dividends has increased by 40% compared to 2024 [39] - Bond funds and dividend equity funds are the primary contributors to this increase in dividends [40] Valuation Tables - The article includes valuation tables for dividend indices and funds for reference [42] - These tables provide insights into earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other financial metrics for various indices and funds [42]