增程已老、纯电难料，理想的现实太 “骨感”

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's Q1 2024 performance was generally in line with expectations, but the guidance for Q2 is disappointing, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum and pricing power [5][21][36]. Sales Performance - In Q1, Li Auto's vehicle sales revenue reached 24.7 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by approximately 500 million RMB, primarily due to lower-than-expected price declines [1][36]. - The sales volume guidance for Q2 is set at 123,000 to 128,000 units, which implies an average monthly sales of around 46,000 units for May and June, below market expectations [5][21]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for vehicle sales in Q1 was 19.8%, slightly below the market's expectation of around 20% [2][14]. - The overall gross profit margin for the company was 20.5%, indicating a stable but unimpressive performance [36][39]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Li Auto's inventory turnover days increased to approximately 40 days, suggesting that the company may need to offer further discounts on older models to clear stock [26][42]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles is expected to decline by 13,000 RMB in Q2, reflecting ongoing pricing pressures [25][27]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 were 2.5 billion RMB, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and autonomous driving technologies [30][31]. - The company has revised its annual R&D expense guidance down from 14 billion RMB to a range of 11 to 12 billion RMB, indicating a potential for profit release [31]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow turned negative at -1.7 billion RMB in Q1, primarily due to declining sales and increased inventory [42]. - Capital expenditures were reduced to 800 million RMB, reflecting a slowdown in new store openings and infrastructure investments [45]. Market Competition and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape for range-extended vehicles is intensifying, with new entrants and existing competitors increasing pressure on Li Auto's market share [7][8]. - The market remains optimistic about Li Auto's upcoming pure electric models, which are expected to drive future sales growth [9][10].