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日本学历贬值30年:博士批量失业、大学生无奈啃老
36氪·2025-05-29 23:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan, drawing parallels with the current situation in China, particularly in the context of the increasing number of university graduates and the challenges they face in the job market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Current Job Market Situation - The number of university graduates in 2024 is projected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is expected to continue until it peaks at 14.45 million in 2038, indicating a persistent job market challenge for graduates [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Degree Devaluation - The article references Japan's experience with degree devaluation, which began in the 1990s after the economic bubble burst, leading to a significant decline in employment rates for graduates [11][14]. - In 1992, the employment rate for university graduates began to drop, with figures falling from 80% to below 70% over the following years [14][21]. - The phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in Japan was characterized by a surplus of graduates and a shrinking demand for high-skilled labor, resulting in a generation of "high-education refugees" [33][40]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Measures - The Japanese government implemented several measures to address the employment crisis, including the "Graduate Doubling Plan" and funding for postdoctoral researchers, aiming to increase higher education enrollment [30][31]. - Despite these efforts, the number of graduate students increased significantly, but the employment rate continued to decline, highlighting a mismatch between education and job market needs [32]. - The revision of the Labor Dispatch Law in 1999 led to a rise in non-standard employment, which provided short-term solutions but ultimately worsened job security for graduates [36][40]. Group 4: Lessons Learned and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes that the root cause of degree devaluation lies in the shrinking demand for skilled labor due to a lack of innovation and industrial upgrades in Japan [48][49]. - The current job market in Japan has shown signs of recovery, with a 98.1% employment rate for new graduates in 2024, attributed to demographic changes and a balance in supply and demand [46][47]. - The experience of Japan serves as a cautionary tale for other countries, including China, regarding the importance of aligning educational outcomes with labor market needs to prevent degree devaluation [53].