中金 • 联合研究 | AI十年展望（二十三）：AI+陪伴：技术降本×场景升维，提供深度情绪价值

Core Viewpoint - AI companionship applications are rapidly emerging and gaining popularity, with significant market potential and user demand, particularly among younger demographics [2][7][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global AI companionship market is projected to reach approximately $30 million in 2023, with potential growth to $70 billion and $150 billion by 2030 under baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 200% and 236% from 2024 to 2030 [7]. - Monthly active users (MAU) of AI companionship products have increased nearly 30 times from under 500,000 to about 15 million between 2018 and 2023, outpacing the growth rates of social media and online gaming [7][8]. Group 2: User Demographics and Needs - The primary user base for AI companionship applications consists of younger individuals seeking emotional support, entertainment, and efficiency improvements [2][8]. - Users exhibit a higher tolerance for AI imperfections in companionship scenarios compared to productivity applications, where accuracy is paramount [8]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The use of mixed expert models (MoE) has significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency in AI dialogue scenarios, enabling better user experiences [16][18]. - Advances in long-text capabilities and linear attention mechanisms are expected to enhance user interactions by allowing for more coherent and contextually relevant conversations [23][24]. - Multi-modal capabilities, including image, audio, and video generation, are becoming essential for enriching user experiences and increasing engagement [27][30]. Group 4: Application Landscape - Notable AI companionship applications include Replika, Character.AI, MiniMax's Talkie, and others, each focusing on different aspects such as emotional support, interactive content, and user-generated content [3][41][44]. - Character.AI has emerged as a leader in the market, achieving a peak MAU of 22 million by August 2024, driven by its strong technical foundation and user engagement strategies [36][37]. Group 5: Future Directions - The industry is expected to explore hardware integration to enhance user experiences, particularly in educational and gaming contexts, targeting broader demographics including children and the elderly [64][65]. - The potential for AI companionship applications to evolve into comprehensive content platforms, akin to TikTok or Xiaohongshu, is being discussed, with a focus on user engagement and emotional connections [59][60].