关税战后是资本战？隐藏“资本税”伏笔，特朗普“大漂亮”法案引发市场强烈警惕

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of a hidden tax provision, known as Section 899, embedded in the recent U.S. tax and spending bill, which could escalate the trade war into a capital war, threatening foreign investors holding trillions of dollars in U.S. assets [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - Section 899 introduces significant changes to the tax treatment of foreign capital in the U.S., marking the most extensive unfavorable changes since the 1984 Deficit Reduction Act and the 1966 Foreign Investors Tax Act [2]. - The provision targets countries with "discriminatory" tax policies, imposing a punitive tax on passive income (such as interest and dividends) from these nations, starting with a 5% increase and potentially rising to 20% above the statutory rate [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts highlight that this legislation creates a framework for the U.S. government to weaponize capital markets, challenging the open nature of U.S. capital markets and mirroring tactics used in the ongoing trade war [6]. - The low threshold for triggering retaliatory taxes means that many developed market countries could be affected, with the potential for significant disruptions in global capital markets [6]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The legislation poses a threat to U.S. Treasury demand, as it could lead to a decline in actual yields on U.S. debt by nearly 100 basis points, particularly affecting foreign government holdings of U.S. debt [6]. - If passed, Section 899 could generate an estimated $116 billion in revenue over ten years, but it risks prompting a mass withdrawal of foreign investors from U.S. assets, further undermining the attractiveness of U.S. financial markets [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The provision is seen as a tool for the Trump administration to negotiate against countries imposing digital service taxes, which are perceived as unfairly targeting U.S. multinational companies [7]. - The potential for increased long-term interest rates and a weakening dollar is highlighted, as the unfavorable tax environment could deter foreign investment, exacerbating existing challenges in the U.S. financial landscape [8][9].