半导体行业观察·2025-05-30 01:55Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a complex and prolonged downcycle that deviates from traditional cyclical patterns, indicating a structural change rather than a simple cyclical downturn [1][16]. Group 1: Semiconductor Cycle Understanding - The typical semiconductor cycle consists of phases from demand surge to recovery, lasting approximately 16 quarters or 4 years, but the current cycle has shown prolonged and complicated downturns since the pandemic began in 2021 [1]. - Recent reports suggest that Wolfspeed, a leading SiC company, is seeking bankruptcy protection, highlighting the uncertainty in the current market phase [1][17]. Group 2: Performance of Analog Chip Companies - The performance of major analog chip manufacturers in Q1 2025 generally exceeded market expectations, indicating potential positive signals in the industry [5]. - Companies like TI, ADI, and Infineon have shown signs of recovery in industrial and automotive markets, while others like Microchip are still struggling with all major markets at low points [8][9]. Group 3: Market Recovery and Predictions - The Q2 2025 financial guidance shows a 3.6% quarter-over-quarter growth but a 2.9% year-over-year decline, suggesting a potential recovery phase that is still cautious [11][13]. - Nine out of twelve analog chip companies have raised their performance expectations, with TI and ADI anticipating a return to year-over-year growth in Q2 [14]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Industry - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a shift where investment decisions are increasingly influenced by non-market factors such as policy guidance and geopolitical considerations, rather than solely by market demand and financial returns [16][20]. - The market dynamics have changed, with companies that are well-positioned in industrial and communication sectors showing resilience, while those reliant on consumer electronics face ongoing challenges [22].