哪些城市房地产有望先企稳？（国金宏观张馨月）

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are likely to stabilize first, while second-tier cities such as Chengdu, Hohhot, and Nanchang have more mature conditions for stabilization [1][3]. Group 1: First-tier Cities - Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to lead in stabilization, with their new housing inventory turnover periods being significantly better than those of Beijing and Guangzhou, at 9.7 and 13.1 months respectively [4]. - The second-hand housing transaction shares for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are close to stable levels, with increases of 4.2, 6.4, 0.1, and 7.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [4]. - The land auction market in Shanghai has shown strong performance, with land revenue of 61.45 billion yuan, a 90% increase year-on-year, and an average premium rate of 23.3%, up by 15.9 percentage points [5]. Group 2: Second-tier Cities - Chengdu, Hohhot, and Nanchang are identified as having more mature conditions for stabilization, with Chengdu's new housing inventory turnover period at 12.8 months, indicating a reasonable range [9][12]. - Hohhot has a rental yield of 2.8% and a minimal decline in rental prices, with land revenue of 3.18 billion yuan this year, a significant increase from 0.35 billion yuan last year [14]. - Nanchang's new housing inventory turnover period is 11.9 months, and its land revenue has increased by 154.5% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the real estate market [15].