AI已成为了全球贸易不可忽视的重要组成部分，中国作为全球最大的AI商品出口国，美国 作为全球AI投资的领头羊，美国AI投资能否维持高位直接影响到中国出口的景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 AI投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。 2025年前三季度，广义AI投资拉动美国实际GDP同比增速 0.8个百分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS数据显示，从2022年开始AI投资在美国GDP中占比 逐年提高，截至2025年中期，IT制造和数据中心投资占美国GDP的1%，加上软件和其他设备后的比 重达到5%，已超过2000年"互联网泡沫"时期的巅峰水平。Gartner估计2025年全球AI支出为1.8万亿 美元，2026年扩张至2.5万亿美元。在AI投资热潮的带动下，IMF估计2026年全球经济增速上行至 3.3%。 AI贸易也正在高速增长。 WTO数据显示，2025年二季度全球AI相关商品贸易同比增长21.7%，远高 于非AI相关商品贸易4.2%的增速， AI相关商品占全球贸易规模的15% ，对全球商品贸易增速的贡献 率超过40%。 亚洲是AI贸易增速最快的地区，北美是AI贸易规模最大的地区。 WTO估计，受 ...

二、冷战的启示：战略金属的过山车行情 二战后基于规则的国际秩序逐渐弱化，各国将战略自主与安全置于优先地位，在能源、粮 食、关键矿产等领域加大韧性投资。一份 结合供给端集中度脆弱性和需求端国防战略需 求的大宗商品" 地缘安全含量 " ，或是 观察地缘博弈的重要前瞻指标。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 一、逆全球化之下，各国都需要战略自主安全 "我们不在餐桌上，就会在菜单上" 加拿大总理卡尼在2026年达沃斯论坛上的警句，揭示了当前国际关系的残酷现实。在他看来，二战后 建立的基于规则的国际秩序正在消亡，世界已进入大国零和博弈的时代。面对这一局面，各国必须在能 源、粮食、关键矿产、金融和供应链等领域加大韧性投资以获得战略自主性。 卡尼提到，过去二十年中，金融、公共卫生、能源和地缘政治领域接连发生的危机，彻底暴露了极端全 球一体化所带来的风险。美国已经将经济一体化本身当作武器——把关税当作杠杆，把金融基础设施当 作胁迫工具，把供应链当作可被利用的脆弱点。一国的生存基石是战略自主，当一个国家无法养活自 己、无法为自己提供能源或无法自卫时，其选择寥寥无几。"当规则不再保护你时，你必须保护自 己"。 因此，不论是国家层 ...

不同商品对AI的敞口，如同光谱呈现鲜明差异。对数据中心和电网设施的价值贡献度最高 的依次为钒、铜、锂、镓、铝，金依托金融属性成为AI泡沫的对冲工具，原油因抑制通胀 的中选诉求站在了AI叙事的对立面。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 当AI发展所面临的实体资源瓶颈逐渐成为共识，这些瓶颈正在重塑各类大宗商品在新时代下的价格逻 辑。AI算力指数级增长所需要的电力、设备、传输介质等物理基础，都依赖于大宗商品。 一部分商品的物理属性直接受益于能源电力基础设施、电气基础设施、冷却与热管理系统、半导体及硬 件投入、数据中心建筑材料相关的建设投入，另一部分商品的金融属性逐渐演绎为AI叙事的对冲工具， 间接受益于流动性推动的价格泡沫。还有一部分商品则因替代效应和特朗普压通胀的中选导向，暂时站 在了AI叙事的对立面。 本文聚焦于大宗商品的"AI含金量"，即AI数据中心和相关电网设施建设所需的金属、矿产，以及对冲 需求， 体现为 大宗商品正在从周期性定价转向结构性定价。 一、 数据中心和电力系统 1）冷却： 冷却系统和排热基础设施占金属总质量的最大份额，所使用矿物和金属质量占比达到35- 45%。其中铁的用量最为突出，每MW用量 ...

美元信用长周期逻辑没有改变，但其背后的资金流动、资产之间的偏好切换和杠杆交 易却从未停歇。 随着时间的推移，全球黑天鹅事件频发引起阶段式风偏降低，美国再 通胀压力抬头引发降息预期收紧以及AI广义成本的传导显著加快，三者可能在某个时 刻面临共振；金银的历史级别波动也可能在其他大类资产身上发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 金银近期的剧烈大跌，与沃什的提名并没有本质上的因果关系 ，更多是时间上的巧合，提名至多只是 引发情绪波动的"催化剂"；实质上，金银下跌的核心驱动力在于暴涨后的大规模获利了并引发了去杠 杆的连锁反应。 回顾历史，黄金每一波20%至30%的显著涨幅通常需要半年左右的时间来消化；而2025年和2026 年，这种上涨周期被极度压缩到月度级别。去年黄金一年内55次刷新历史纪录，今年开年不到一个月 又猛涨超20%，这种"斜率"极高的拉升，导致市场在短时间内完成了历史绝大多数涨幅，随后必然面 临剧烈的回调以消化超买压力。 金银暴涨暴跌的背后，呈现出明显的"MEME化"特征 ，安全资产的定价不再单纯依赖"去美元化"，而 是由流动性和AI叙事叠加所推动。"左手黄金，右手AI"所带来的对冲需求让黄金价格和美股 ...

欧盟不断强化中国"贸易转移""过剩产能"等叙事，更多反映的是欧盟在当前地缘政治 格局下的现实压力，而非单纯的贸易问题。 中欧之间有广泛合作的现实基础，但前提 是 保障中国企业在欧盟的合法权益。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 2025年，中国对欧盟出口同比增长8.4%，贸易顺差达2917.8亿美元，历史上首次超过对美顺差 （2803.5亿美元），欧盟由此成为中国最大的海外顺差来源地。 此前《金融时报》等欧洲主流媒体频繁强调所谓"贸易转移"逻辑，认为美国市场"关门"迫使中国产能 大规模涌入欧洲，并将欧洲描绘为中国过剩产能的"泄洪区"。这一叙事在舆论层面具有传播力，但其 隐含前提是中国对欧出口增长主要由低价终端商品驱动，本质是被动倾销。 然而，从2025年中欧实际商品贸易结构及增量来源来看，贸易转移这一叙事与事实存在偏差。 一、撕掉"贸易转移"标签后的中欧贸易实质 从商品构成看，2025年前11个月工 业机械设备（HS84）与电气设备（HS85）构成中国对欧出口的 两大核心板块，分别实现出口893.8亿美元和1359.9亿美元，同比增速为9.9%和5.7%，合计占中国 对欧出口总额的45%以上。 在工业机械设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of total demand in core cities, along with long-term factors such as rental yield and price-to-income ratio nearing valuation bottoms, collectively determine the direction of the real estate market's recovery in 2026. The pace of this recovery will depend on short-term factors like rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings [2][38]. Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both "volume" and "price." The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has increased, with a year-on-year decline in transaction area narrowing to -13.0% as of January 25, compared to -26.8% the previous month. The weekly transaction area reached 2.79 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive at 17.7% [4][5]. - In January, the transaction prices of second-hand homes have ended the accelerated decline seen since June 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of only -0.7%, an improvement from the previous half-year's average decline of around -1.3% [9]. Group 2: Short-term Factors Behind Positive Changes - The increase in second-hand home transactions is primarily due to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand. As the market enters a stock era, the sales of new and second-hand homes often offset each other. In December 2025, new home sales in 40 cities rebounded, while second-hand home sales remained relatively flat [13]. - The narrowing of price declines is influenced by seasonal factors, with sellers becoming more hesitant to lower prices as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a slowdown in price drops [14]. Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative price decline, rental yield, and price-to-income ratio indicate that the real estate market in most cities is nearing valuation bottoms. The total housing demand in core cities has stabilized, suggesting that the market is beginning to meet conditions for recovery [20]. - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with new home sales in 2025 at 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%. However, this decline is more due to the increased share of second-hand home transactions rather than a decrease in overall housing demand [21]. Group 4: Rental Yield and Price-to-Income Ratio - As of December 2025, the rental yield in 100 cities has risen to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, indicating a reasonable gap between rental yield and borrowing costs [31]. - The price-to-income ratio has shifted significantly during this downturn, with many properties transitioning from investment assets to consumer goods. The price-to-income ratio in most cities has returned to levels below those seen in 2006, indicating a reduction in valuation bubbles [35][36]. Group 5: Market Recovery Dynamics - The stabilization of total demand in core cities and the nearing of valuation bottoms for rental yield and price-to-income ratio will influence the pace of the real estate market's recovery. The rental prices and the volume of second-hand home listings will be critical short-term factors [38][43]. - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be a key window for assessing the market's recovery pace, with optimistic scenarios suggesting stable rental prices and second-hand home listings, while conservative scenarios may see renewed pressure from increased listings [44][45].

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年，在存款利率大幅下行的背景下，随着此前高息的三、五年期定期存款到期，居民部门"存款搬家"再度成为市场的关注焦点。在分析"存款搬 家"时，我们需要先说清楚以下几点事实。 事实一：当前市场讨论的"存款搬家"话题，恰好对应的是三年前市场讨论的"超额储蓄"问题。 当时受地产下行、消费意愿回落等因素影响，居民部门开始大幅增配定期存款。2022年新增住户存款17.8万亿，其中定期存款13.7万亿。2023年虽然 新增住户存款下滑至16.6万亿，但定期存款新增16万亿，占新增住户存款的比重达到了96%。简单估算，2022年-2023年居民部门积攒了7万亿左右 的"超额存款"。 从居民现金流量表来看，当时 超额存款的形成有三个来源： 一是居民消费意愿回落，总储蓄率在22年上行2个百分点，总储蓄规模相比21年提高3万 亿；二是随着地产下行，居民用于购房的资金（体现为资金流量表中的资本形成总额）转为金融投资，2022年净金融投资规模接近20万亿，相比2021 年多增4万亿；三是金融资产重新配置，居民部门赎回理财增配存款，2022、2023年居民部门连续两年赎回理财等其他金融资产，居民资 ...

2026年，将是特朗普的行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是非，选民自有定论； 对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 进入新的一年，特朗普连续霸榜国际新闻头条，内外事务全面出击：对内政策尝试修复K型经济，对外 事务激进地寻找个人中选和国家利益的"公约数"，对AI叙事提供更加友好的宏观环境。 本次中选的核心是解决可负担性问题，特朗普的对内政策也围绕这一问题展开，从中可以明显观察到： 货币的作用更窄，财政的作用更广，传统的经济政策框架正在被白宫行政权所替代。 当大家在思考"新旧联储主席、联储独立性"等话题时，也意识到货币政策的作用越来越有限，行政手 段越来越直接。未来一年，我们会看到越来越多来自白宫的"非常规经济政策"。 政治经济学的视角越发重要。2026年，将是特朗普将其行政权无限放大的年份：对内政策的功过是 非，选民自有定论；对外事务的是非曲直，美元信用将做出反馈。 从收入分配的角度看，美国"工薪阶层"所对应的劳动收入份额在2025年第三季度进一步下行至 53.8%，延续着2000年以来的下行趋势，也创造了有史以来的最低水平。无论是减税还是更加直接的 发钱，都会再次推升政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical issues will become a significant topic driven by the midterm elections, with short-term volatility expected but a strengthening narrative of great power competition in the medium to long term [2] Summary by Sections Midterm Elections and Economic Concerns - Polymarket indicates an approximately 80% chance that the Republican Party will lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections [4] - Trump's acknowledgment of the necessity to win the midterm elections to avoid impeachment highlights the importance of economic issues, particularly the cost of living, which remains challenging due to long-term housing shortages and high mortgage rates [4][7] Trump's Strategy and "Trumpism" - Trump prioritizes personal interests, using foreign policy to regain electoral support if domestic issues fail [7] - His approach, termed "Trumpism," combines U.S. national interests with personal political gains, portraying himself as a protector of American security [8][9] Short-Term Tactics vs. Long-Term Strategy - Trump's preference for quick, impactful actions often leads to superficial successes without addressing deeper strategic issues, as seen in the limited return of U.S. manufacturing despite trade wars [9][10] - The recent Venezuelan situation exemplifies this, where immediate control over Maduro boosted Trump's political standing but lacked a sustainable long-term strategy [10][12] Geopolitical Implications - The strategic value of Greenland aligns with Trump's "Trumpism," but the high costs and local opposition complicate potential U.S. acquisition [15] - The situation in Iran reflects a retreat from U.S. strategic interests, with Trump's actions driven more by political necessity than by a coherent long-term strategy [16] Market Impact and Future Outlook - Geopolitical issues are expected to lead to significant asset price volatility in the coming year, influenced by Trump's short-term tactics [17] - The potential for a stronger dollar and fluctuations in U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets, as well as resource prices, should be monitored as Trump seeks to leverage geopolitical events for political gain [17]

Core Viewpoint - The main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026 are centered around AI and geopolitical factors, reflecting the U.S. focus on technology for growth and geopolitical selection, while another theme that has not been fully priced in is "anti-involution," corresponding to China's pursuit of reform for momentum [2][9]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market has shown a "good start" with a cumulative increase of 5.2% in the Wind All A index and an average daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The Sci-Tech 50, CSI 500, and National 2000 indices have led the gains with increases of 11.9%, 11.3%, and 9.6% respectively, indicating that technology and small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks [4]. - The leading sectors include media, computer, non-ferrous metals, and military industries, with year-to-date increases of 16.0%, 14.0%, 14.0%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the current market's focus on "AI and geopolitics" [4]. AI Impact on Economy - AI's influence is evident in both the A-share market trends and marginal changes in the macro economy. In December 2025, China's PPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase since 2024, with AI contributing to improvements in PPI, particularly in non-ferrous and technology sectors [6][9]. - In December 2025, prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries increased by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, driven by AI-related electricity demand, which significantly boosted prices of metals like copper, silver, tungsten, tantalum, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and nickel [6]. Pricing Dynamics - In December 2025, prices for external storage devices and integrated circuits rose by 15.3% and 2.4% respectively, with AI-related high-end chips occupying advanced process resources, leading to structural tensions in chip availability. Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60%-70% in Q1 2026, significantly higher than previous cycles [8]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" has also contributed to the month-on-month recovery of PPI, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices increasing by 1.0% and the price of complete new energy vehicles turning from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 0.1% [8]. Strategic Choices - The improvement in PPI reflects strategic choices made by China and the U.S. in the current global macro context, which are expected to become the two main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026. The "AI and geopolitics" theme corresponds to the U.S. seeking new productive forces in a stagflation environment, while the "anti-involution" theme aligns with China's push for reform to drive momentum through fiscal and income distribution reforms [9]. Anti-Involution Developments - The "anti-involution" theme is entering a new phase in 2026, as highlighted by recent policy discussions emphasizing the need to address malicious low-price dumping and promote healthy competition [10]. - The core of "anti-involution" in the industry is "quality over price," with regulatory bodies emphasizing compliance in price competition within the photovoltaic industry and addressing irrational competition behaviors [11]. - Recent policy changes, such as the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, reflect the national-level commitment to "anti-involution," allowing leading companies to raise prices to absorb costs and redirect funds to domestic consumption [12][13]. Regulatory Environment - Strengthened anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition regulations signal an acceleration of "anti-involution," with the market regulator engaging with leading companies in the silicon material and photovoltaic sectors to prevent collusion and ensure fair competition [14].