低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、个别行业投资收益确认是利润高增的主因。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 8月规模以上工业企业利润同比大幅回升21个百分点至19.8%， 低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、酒饮料茶行业投资收益确认， 是推动利润同比大幅走高的三个主要原因。 8月利润同比高增的第一大贡献是反内卷带来上游制造业利润率（暂时性）改善。 8月工业企业利润总额6726亿元，同比多增1114亿元，其中上游制造业利润总额同比多增555.6亿元，贡献了49.9%的利润增长。 上游工业企业利润的大幅好转主要来自于黑色金属和有色金属， 8月两个行业利润总额分别为193、339亿元，同比多增336、128亿元。 行业利润增加主要是因为在反内卷驱动下，行业毛利率上行。8月黑色金属加工业的毛利率为7%，去年同期为2%（年内最低），因此在相 同营业收入下，毛利润多增329亿元。有色金属加工业的毛利润同比多增113亿元。 8月利润同比高增的第二大贡献是个别行业的投资收益确认发生变化。 8月投资收益同比多增502亿元（同比增长66.6%），贡献了45%的利润增长，剔除掉投资收益之后，8月工业企业利润同比增长13%，环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new policy financial tools aims for long-term goals, differing from the previous year's approach in terms of investment focus, funding sources, and economic impact [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Focus - The new policy financial tools, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, are entirely allocated to supplement project capital [4]. - Unlike 2022, which focused on stabilizing growth under significant pressure, the current tools are designed to support expanding domestic demand and technological innovation, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6]. - The focus areas for investment include digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumer infrastructure, green and low-carbon initiatives, agriculture and rural development, transportation logistics, and municipal parks, with 20% of the funds required to be directed towards private enterprises [7]. Group 2: Funding Sources - In 2022, the funding for policy financial tools came from policy banks issuing bonds and central bank's PSL support, with a net financing scale of 3,934.4 million yuan in September [11]. - As of August this year, the net financing scale of policy bonds reached 3,923.8 million yuan, indicating that the initial funds for the new financial tools may already be in place, with a faster-than-expected actual disbursement pace [12]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The 2022 policy financial tools had a multiplier effect of approximately 3.5 times on infrastructure investment, while the new tools could potentially leverage 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment [16]. - The new financial tools support both infrastructure and manufacturing investments, with a notable emphasis on high-tech industries and advanced manufacturing, enhancing growth in these sectors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comprehensive reform pilot plan for the market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of factor allocation and stimulate productivity [4]. Group 1: Market-Oriented Allocation of Land Indicators - The reform emphasizes the market-oriented allocation of land indicators, addressing the imbalance where underdeveloped areas receive more construction land indicators while potential development areas face shortages [6]. - Specific regions like the Hefei metropolitan area and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area propose cross-regional trading of surplus land indicators to enhance land use efficiency and support high-quality development [6]. Group 2: Equalization of Basic Public Services and "Human-Land-Money" Linkage - The reform plans to implement a system linking basic public services to the place of residence, with regions like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area aiming to improve service standards [8]. - Chengdu's plan focuses on matching new construction land with population trends, while cities like Chongqing emphasize the "human-land-money" linkage to align fiscal transfers and public service investments with urbanization [8]. Group 3: Rural Homestead Reform - The reform aims to facilitate urbanization of rural populations by exploring voluntary compensation mechanisms for exiting homestead rights, thereby increasing financial support for rural migrants [9]. - Regions like Beijing and Chongqing are investigating specific methods for voluntary exit from homestead rights, which could enhance the willingness of rural residents to migrate to cities [9]. Group 4: Improvement of Income Distribution System - The reform plans to increase labor remuneration in the initial distribution and enhance residents' income through land and capital rights [10]. - Hefei's plan includes raising wages for frontline workers and adjusting minimum wage standards, while regions like Fuzhou and Xiamen focus on increasing farmers' share of land appreciation profits [11]. Group 5: Improvement of Technology Achievement Property Rights System - The reform encourages granting researchers ownership or long-term usage rights of their technological achievements, with Hefei proposing at least 70% ownership rights for researchers [12]. - The plan also promotes the capitalization of technology, including knowledge property financing and supporting quality tech companies in listing [12]. Group 6: Support for Researchers Starting Enterprises - Several regions support researchers in starting businesses, facilitating the flow of talent between academia and industry [13]. - For instance, Suzhou's plan allows researchers to extend their leave for business creation if they are in high-tech sectors [13]. Group 7: Optimization of Technology Innovation Resource Allocation - The reform proposes implementing a chief scientist responsibility system to enhance innovation management and strengthen the role of leading enterprises in technological innovation [14]. Group 8: Financial Industry Opening Up - The reform encourages Taiwanese financial institutions to participate in the mainland market and explores financial product connectivity between China and Singapore [15]. Group 9: Facilitation of Cross-Border RMB Payment Settlement - The reform aims to simplify cross-border RMB settlement processes and establish a unified bank settlement account system for domestic and foreign currencies [16][17]. Group 10: Public Data Opening and Data Element Confirmation - The reform emphasizes the opening of high-value public data sets and explores market-oriented pricing for data elements, promoting data service trade [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of stock market performance on household consumption, highlighting the disparity in benefits between high-net-worth individuals and lower-net-worth investors during a bull market [4][9][19]. Group 1: Stock Market and Household Assets - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen over 25% since April, while consumer growth has declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, indicating a divergence between the stock market and consumer fundamentals [4]. - As of Q2 2025, non-financial and housing assets account for 49% and 45.4% of total household assets, respectively, while financial assets make up 51%, with deposits, stocks, and mutual funds comprising 33.4%, 5.4%, and 5.2% [5]. - Household stock assets grew by 21% year-on-year in Q2 2025, contributing 1 percentage point to overall asset growth [6]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Market Impact - Stock market wealth is concentrated among high-net-worth individuals, with only 0.7% of individual investors holding over 10 million yuan, yet they account for 49% of total market value [9][10]. - High-net-worth clients have a higher risk tolerance and better access to information, allowing them to achieve excess returns during bull markets [10][11]. Group 3: Consumption Behavior and Wealth Effect - The bull market can enhance household consumption by increasing overall wealth, improving credit access, and reducing precautionary savings [13]. - Research indicates that a 10% increase in stock prices can lead to a 1.05% increase in urban household consumption, with the effect being asymmetric [15]. - Low-income households show a more pronounced increase in consumption willingness during stock market upswings, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume [16]. Group 4: Consumption Categories Affected by Stock Market - Financial asset appreciation positively influences various consumption categories, particularly discretionary spending, with a 1% increase in stock value leading to nearly double the impact on discretionary consumption compared to essential consumption [17]. - The stock market has a significant wealth effect on automobile consumption, with a 1% increase in market capitalization correlating to a 0.16% increase in passenger car sales [18]. - Overall, while stock value increases can stimulate discretionary and service consumption, the lower consumption propensity of high-net-worth investors limits the overall impact on consumer spending [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's independence and the pressure it faces from political figures, particularly Trump, regarding interest rate decisions and economic growth expectations [2][18]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not only on the interest rate cut magnitude but also on the dynamics within the committee, including new member Milan's rapid inclusion and the legal issues faced by member Cook [4]. - Only member Milan supported a 50 basis point rate cut, while other members, including Waller and Bowman, aligned with the majority [4]. - The median forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, but only 9 out of 19 members supported this adjustment [4]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The FOMC members have become more optimistic about the economy, raising the GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8%, while lowering the unemployment rate for 2026 to 4.4% [5]. - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were increased to 2.6% from 2.4% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold emerged as the biggest loser from the FOMC meeting, despite being one of the best-performing asset classes since the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 10% increase attributed to market reactions to the Fed's perceived loss of independence [6]. - Other assets showed limited volatility, but the market's expectation for a series of 25 basis point rate cuts was met [8]. Group 4: Labor Market Concerns - Powell expressed significant concerns regarding the labor market, introducing the term "risk management cut" to describe the Fed's approach to rate cuts, which may suppress the likelihood of consecutive cuts [13]. - The labor market is facing pressures from reduced immigration and weakening labor demand, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook [13]. Group 5: Political Pressure - Trump's fundamental disagreement with the Fed's economic growth expectations creates ongoing political pressure, as he seeks more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate growth and alleviate debt pressures [17][18].

八月A股市场展现出的强劲势头令人印象深刻，九月伊始A股资金面一度降温，我们在前期报告 《当A 股长期估值修复遇到新一轮全球水牛》 中提出，前期A股的上涨主要源于三重因素叠加——全球流动 性水牛，长期系统性风险化解，以及重要时点的情绪催化剂。 水牛之后，一辆由基本面重估主导的A股"慢车"，正在渐行渐近。 如何搭上"慢车"？我们为投资者提 供 三个投资建议和配置方向 。 一、三个投资建议 （一）已在车上，不必急于下车 身处市场之中不必急于离场，因为无论是国内还是国外的资金，当前看都还有持续流入的潜力。 已在车上不急于下车，未上车可耐心等待，即使下跌不必担忧。配置方向上，关注滞胀中 的确定性、突破滞胀的科技、中国转型中的阿尔法。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 国内资金，目前受关注的是居民存款是否会大规模"搬家"。 从存量看，A股总市值刚突破100万亿， 而居民存款高达160-170万亿，存款与市值的比率高达1.7，处于历史偏高水平。居民手中仍有大量资 金有待配置。从流量上看，尽管7月份金融数据显示居民存款有所减少，但主要是6月季末银行存款冲 量之后，存款回流理财产品，计入非银金融机构存款所致。目前为止，居民存款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining output growth in the face of accelerating population aging is to improve labor productivity through technological advancement, increasing labor participation rates, and expanding overseas operations [2]. Group 1: Global Population Trends - The global population is transitioning through four stages of demographic transformation, with most countries having completed industrialization or being in its middle stages, leading to a decline in the demographic dividend and an increase in aging and low birth rates [5][10]. - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 10.2%, with this figure expected to rise to 13.1% by 2035, indicating a shift towards moderate aging societies [10]. - The total fertility rate globally has decreased from a peak of 5.32 in the 1960s to 2.25 in 2024, nearing the replacement level of 2.1, with developed economies facing significant challenges related to low birth rates [11]. Group 2: China's Population Challenges - China is entering a phase of accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and older expected to reach 15.6% by 2024, transitioning to a moderately aged society [16]. - The total fertility rate in China has fallen below the replacement level since 1991, reaching 1.0 in 2023, necessitating comprehensive policies to support childbearing and reduce the burden of child-rearing [18]. - The phenomenon of "aging before becoming rich" poses challenges for total demand and the social security system, as the elderly population's consumption capacity may be weaker than that of developed economies [20]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts of Population Structure Changes - The aging population is expected to exert downward pressure on potential growth rates due to a shrinking labor force, with China's labor force participation rate declining from a peak of 74.5% in 2010 to 68.3% by 2024 [31][34]. - The aging process can lead to a negative output gap, as seen in Japan, where actual economic growth has consistently lagged behind potential growth due to demographic shifts [36]. - Population aging is associated with a shift in consumption patterns, increasing demand for services such as healthcare and elder care, which may enhance service consumption's share of total consumption [39]. Group 4: Strategies to Address Aging Challenges - Improving labor productivity is crucial to counter the negative impacts of an aging population, with technology playing a key role in enhancing productivity through automation and innovation [46][51]. - Increasing labor participation rates, particularly among women, and extending working hours can help mitigate the labor supply challenges posed by an aging population [57]. - Expanding overseas operations and attracting foreign labor can serve as effective strategies to address domestic labor shortages and enhance productivity [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential decision-making should no longer be viewed through the lens of preventive rate cuts, but rather as a race against a "slightly lagging" curve, with the possibility of a more significant rate cut and dovish signals than expected due to persistent weak employment and increasing political pressure [4][11]. Group 1: Political Shift vs Economic Shift - Fed Chair Powell has undergone a significant political shift, moving from confidence in the labor market to concerns about its slowdown, influenced by political dynamics rather than purely economic data [5][11]. - The political cost of maintaining "price stability" is rising, leading to expectations of a more aggressive rate cut in September [4][18]. Group 2: Employment Data and Its Implications - The recent downward revisions in employment data, including a significant adjustment of 91,100 jobs, provide Powell with a strong data-driven rationale for a substantial rate cut [13][15]. - The credibility of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is declining, with officials expressing concerns over the reliability of employment data, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [12][13]. Group 3: Rate Cut Consequences - A potential rate cut of 50 basis points in September and a total of 100 basis points by year-end are plausible, despite inflation concerns, as the political cost of maintaining current policies increases [18][20]. - The long-term implications of rate cuts could lead to "re-inflation" risks, complicating the fiscal landscape and potentially undermining the Fed's independence [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing trade tensions initiated by the United States on global trade dynamics, highlighting the opportunities and challenges faced by emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, while noting the decline in China's export share to the U.S. [3][21] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. remains the largest consumer market globally, and ASEAN countries are expected to benefit from the trade tensions due to their relatively lower tariff rates and stronger production capabilities [3]. - By July 2025, China's share of imports to the U.S. is projected to decrease by 4.4 percentage points to 9%, while ASEAN's share is expected to increase by 3.2 percentage points to 14% [3]. - Despite a significant decline in U.S. import demand since April, imports from ASEAN have maintained a growth rate of around 30% [3]. Group 2: ASEAN Export Growth - ASEAN's increase in U.S. import share is primarily driven by labor-intensive goods such as toys, footwear, and furniture, as well as electrical machinery and mechanical equipment [4]. - In the first half of 2024, ASEAN exported 25.5% of the world's footwear, 16.7% of electrical machinery products, and 12.6% of textile and apparel products [4]. - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with foreign direct investment reaching approximately $15.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4]. Group 3: China's Export Strategy - Although China has lost some export share to the U.S., it has maintained high growth in exports to ASEAN, with a 12% year-on-year increase in exports to ASEAN in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The export growth to ASEAN is supported by intermediate and capital goods, which contributed significantly to the overall export growth [5]. - China's exports to Africa are becoming more diversified, with significant growth in machinery, vehicles, and electrical equipment [13]. Group 4: Africa's Economic Potential - Africa, with a population of 1.48 billion and a high proportion of young people, presents significant potential for Chinese exports [12]. - By 2024, China is expected to account for 23.1% of Africa's imports, an increase of 6.2 percentage points since 2019 [12]. - The economic growth forecast for Africa is 3.9% in 2025, driven by its rich natural resources and demographic advantages [12]. Group 5: Overall Trade Impact - Emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa are the main beneficiaries of the current trade tensions, with their shares in U.S. imports increasing [21]. - In contrast, regions like Japan, South Korea, and Europe may face greater pressure due to declining shares in the U.S. market [21]. - In the first half of 2024, China's export share to major sample regions increased by 0.1 percentage points, while ASEAN's share rose by 0.5 percentage points, primarily at the expense of Europe and Japan [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market, highlighting a potential rise in unemployment rates and the difficulties faced by the private sector in job recovery, particularly in light of recent economic data and policy implications [2][6][15]. Employment Trends - The initial response rate for the August non-farm survey showed a significant rebound, but the trend of employment deterioration has not ceased, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [4][6]. - The total non-farm job additions from May to August amounted to only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [4][6]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [6][11]. Economic Sensitivity - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have both seen significant increases, indicating underlying vulnerabilities in the labor market [11][16]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly sensitive to tariffs, has experienced a decline in working hours since peaking in May and June, suggesting further potential job losses [9][11]. Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent labor data has undergone significant revisions, with a cumulative downward adjustment of 279,000 in non-farm job additions and a 0.21% increase in the unemployment rate since the July FOMC meeting [6][15]. - There is speculation about whether the Fed may need to adjust its interest rate strategy in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, especially after Powell's dovish stance [6][15]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that even if the U.S. economy avoids recession, young individuals and undocumented immigrants are already experiencing economic hardships, highlighting a structural issue in the labor market [16][15]. - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment poses a greater risk for future unemployment rate increases [7][11].