年内楼市止跌回稳存在长期因素和短期因素的双重支撑，复刻去年加速下跌走势的概率不 大，预计经历缩量磨底后有望再次确认底部。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 我们在1月29日报告 《楼市止跌回稳的前奏》 中指出，"房地产市场积极变化的背后，既有短期因素的影 响，也离不开长期因素的支撑，'金三银四'是检验房地产市场止跌回稳节奏的关键窗口"。 当前市场的核心分歧在于，2026年年初以来楼市的止跌是否具有持续性？当市场进入"金三银四"以后的 成交淡季，房地产市场的走向是磨底后企稳，还是复刻去年的走势，开启新一轮加速下跌？透过本轮地 产"小阳春"的表现，我们尝试给出答案。 一、地产"小阳春"的成色 1、成交量 受春节错位影响，2026年重点城市二手房网签数据弱于2025年同期，3月1日至26日，22城二手房成交 面积同比下降14.5%，一、二、三线城市同比分别为-2.9%、-22.7%、-15.6%。其中，厦门、南京、 上海、北京、宁波、无锡、佛山的网签量好于去年同期，同比分别为10.8%、4.5%、3.9%、3.5%、 2.5%、1.3%。 但较为滞后的网签数据并不足以体现2026年"小阳春"的真实成色。由于2026 ...

美国在中东军事上的持久战，是美元信用的第四次消耗战。当市场开始定价输掉中东战争 是美国综合国力由盛而衰的标志，黄金将攀上下一个高峰。 本轮金价调整，起初是美伊战争爆发，石油和美元大幅走强引发的流动性紧缩预期。美国作为第一大石 油生产国和石油净出口国，油价上升让美元相较于非美货币被动地获得了溢价。同时，来自中东和亚洲 市场的避险需求也让离岸美元流动性收紧。之后，油价持续高位引发输入性通胀担忧，央行和期货市场 修正利率预期，截至 3月23日，隔夜掉期市场开始定价美联储年内将加息0.8次，英、欧、加、澳央行 今年将分别加息2.4次、2.2次、3.8次、3.1次 （图表4） 。美债利率的上移，让黄金的投机客迅速撤 退 （图表2、3） 。 来源: Bloomberg, 国金证券研究所 来源: Wind, 国金证券研究所 6000 45 黄金: 3M已实现波动率 黄金:3M隐含波动率 r 黄金现货价格(右) 40 5500 35 5000 30 4500 25 20 4000 15 3500 10 3000 5 2500 0 03 R 2036'03 图表 1: 1月末以来，黄金隐含波动率已经下降 (点，美元) 美债收益 ...

最近一周，宏观认知的波动显著高于战争态势的变化。 如果这场战争最终进入持久战状 态，那么它不仅是一个中东地缘政治问题，也将成为一个全球能源、供应链、通胀、资产 定价和大国安全溢价重估的问题。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 战争伊始，认为会快速结束的认知主要基于两个方面：去年"十二日战争"的路径依赖，以及特朗普过往 良好的TACO记录。因此，初期看到资金继续流入美股押注Trump Put，美债也并未积极定价通胀和紧 缩风险；而A股相对独立于战争，基于能源自主优势存在抢占制造业份额的可能，港股也一度引发避险 的中东资金流入。 但最近一周，交易出现"补偿式修正"：宏观认知的波动显著高于战争态势的变化。 从过去一周的现实 演绎来看，特朗普的TACO面临着明显的边际效用递减，外交斡旋和实质性谈判都没有真正展开。 霍尔木兹海峡仍面临实质性中断，以色列对伊朗温和派的定点清除加剧了供应链中断长期化的担忧。美 国的轰炸力度还在上升，美军已经增派了更多的兵力为登陆作战做准备，战争并没有朝着降温方向走， 反而更像是在向更深层的升级阶段推进。 市场对美伊战争的认知随着时间的推移发生着明显变化，从闪电战转向拉锯战带来了广泛的宏观影响 ...

1-2月GDP实际增速5%，名义GDP增速4.8%。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 名义增速回升、物价走出低谷，是2026年的宏观主线之一。（详见 《走出价格低估：2026年国内宏 观展望》 ） 1-2月的经济数据开门红，显示出经济开始有复苏的迹象。其中，生产端的工增和服务业生产指数，同 比增速比去年末分别上行1.1、0.2个百分点至6.3%、5.2%。需求端的投资、消费、出口，同比增速分 别为1.8%、2.8%、21.8%，其中固投增速由负转正，结束了连续7个月的负增长。 除春节错位因素影响外，开年的消费、投资数据表现，均可圈可点。 1-2月 非补贴类消费增速从2.9%回升至3.4%。 在超长春节假期带动下，服务零售同比增长5.6%。社 零同比增速从2025年12月的0.9%回升1.9个百分点至2.8%。以旧换新商品消费增速从去年末的-3.9% 回升至-0.9%。 前期承压明显的可选类消费率先好转，1-2月居民可选消费（饮料、烟酒、金银珠宝）和出行娱乐消费 （服装等纺织品、化妆品、体育娱乐用品）分别从去年12月的2.5%、8.5%上行至8.7%、14.5%，其 中服装鞋帽等纺织品零售增速从0.6%上行至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between real estate prices and consumer behavior, suggesting that as housing prices stabilize, there will be a higher elasticity of recovery in discretionary consumption, service consumption, and non-subsidized durable goods consumption [4][21][26]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - By the end of 2025, residential prices in China are expected to have declined to levels seen in mid-2016, with real estate sales area down 51% and investment down 44% from previous peaks [4]. - The second-hand residential listing prices have dropped by 21% compared to previous highs, with prices in third-tier cities nearing their lowest since 2010 [4]. - The real estate market shows conditions for medium-term stabilization based on indicators like total demand, price-to-income ratio, and rental yield [4]. Group 2: Impact of Housing Prices on Consumer Behavior - Housing prices affect consumer behavior through wealth effect, mortgage effect, and crowding-out effect, with different impacts on homeowners and non-homeowners [7]. - Rising housing prices can increase consumption willingness for homeowners but may suppress consumption for non-homeowners due to higher purchasing costs [7]. - A study from South Korea indicates that a 1% decrease in housing prices leads to a 0.409 percentage point decrease in consumption growth for homeowners, while increasing it by 0.679 percentage points for renters [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Consumption Patterns - The marginal effect of wealth diminishes as housing prices rise, while the crowding-out effect becomes more pronounced, indicating that high housing prices can suppress consumption rather than stimulate it [9]. - Research shows that when the housing price-to-income pressure coefficient exceeds 15.77, the positive impact of rising prices on consumption turns negative [9]. - The relationship between housing price changes and consumer spending is not linear, exhibiting a "U" shape, where initial price declines significantly reduce consumption but the impact lessens as prices continue to fall [9]. Group 4: Regional Leverage and Consumption Recovery - The impact of housing prices on consumption varies significantly across regions due to differences in leverage rates, with higher leverage areas experiencing greater declines in consumption during price downturns [14]. - By the end of 2025, leverage rates in provinces like Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are expected to decrease significantly, indicating potential for consumption recovery in these regions [15]. - The article highlights that as leverage rates decline, there is a stronger likelihood of consumption recovery, particularly in discretionary and durable goods [15][26]. Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - The article suggests that if housing prices stabilize, there will be a rebound in discretionary consumption, service consumption, and non-subsidized durable goods consumption [21][26]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of housing price declines, durable goods consumption is more adversely affected than non-durable goods, with significant reductions in spending on items like automobiles and furniture [21]. - As housing price declines slow, previously pressured discretionary consumption categories are likely to see a rebound, with higher certainty in recovery for items like cosmetics and clothing [23][26].

Core Viewpoint - China's AI product exports are experiencing significant growth, supported by the country's industrial chain advantages and the emerging "HALO" trading characteristics, influenced by geopolitical conflicts affecting supply chains [2][15]. Export Data Summary - In January and February, China's exports increased significantly by 21.8% year-on-year, while imports rose by 19.8%. The export growth rates for January and February were 10% and 39.6%, respectively, with the latter exceeding expectations [4]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival and a low base from the previous year contributed to the higher-than-expected export figures. The adjustment after the Spring Festival is estimated to bring February's export growth down to around 10% [4]. - The semiconductor sector led the growth with a 72.6% year-on-year increase in exports, while automatic data processing equipment and its components saw a 20.6% increase, contributing 4.5 percentage points to overall export growth [6]. Price Trends - The demand for AI-related products has led to significant price increases. In January and February, the export price of semiconductors rose by 55.7%, significantly outpacing the 13.7% increase in export volume [6]. - The export price index for electrical machinery and equipment rose from -4% in March 2025 to 5.3% in December 2025, indicating a recovery in pricing [6]. Regional Export Performance - Other East Asian regions also experienced high export growth, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam seeing increases of 44.5%, 31.3%, and 18.3%, respectively, driven by a high proportion of AI-related products [6][7]. - In contrast, regions with lower AI-related exports, such as India and Australia, reported much lower growth rates of 0.6% and -0.9% in January [7]. Product Category Performance - Various product categories showed significant improvement in export performance, with notable increases in agricultural products (12.1%), finished oil (9.9%), and machinery (27.1%) [8]. - The export of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment, both AI-related, saw substantial growth, with integrated circuits alone contributing significantly to Taiwan's and South Korea's export increases [7][8]. Conclusion - The ongoing global AI investment cycle is driving high growth in AI trade, with regions like Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China benefiting from their high AI trade proportions. China's export growth in semiconductors, new energy, and electronic components reflects its industrial chain advantages and the emerging "HALO" trading characteristics [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant downward risks, characterized by a "Davis Double Kill" moment, where both the profit and valuation aspects of the economy are deteriorating due to the Federal Reserve's inaction and adverse political actions [2][6]. Group 1: Labor Market and Employment - The non-farm payroll data continues to show weakness, with a 4.44% unemployment rate and a loss of 86,000 jobs in the private sector, indicating that the labor market is not as robust as previously suggested by Federal Reserve officials [7][12]. - The permanent unemployment rate is slowly rising, and the full-time employment rate has declined more than seasonal trends would suggest, signaling further deterioration in the labor market [9][12]. - The core private sector employment growth turned negative in September 2024, which historically corresponds with recognized economic recessions, indicating a potential hard landing for the economy [13]. Group 2: Economic Growth and AI Dependency - The relationship between traditional economic growth and AI is highlighted, with the assertion that without AI, there is no growth. The core components of GDP, excluding volatile factors, have remained stable, but the cyclical parts are showing a significant slowdown [14][17]. - The cyclical economic portion, which constitutes 16.5% of nominal GDP, is the target of monetary policy, and its contraction since Q4 2022 raises concerns about the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's actions [19][21]. Group 3: Inflation and Cost Pressures - Rising oil prices and the need for manufacturing restocking are putting pressure on U.S. residents' affordability, with the PMI showing only slight rebounds that are more reflective of forced restocking rather than genuine demand recovery [22]. Group 4: Valuation and Geopolitical Risks - The narrative surrounding AI is becoming unstable, with fears of both overestimation and underestimation of its impact on the economy. This uncertainty is affecting market valuations and investor sentiment [25][26]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to further challenge the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, as the U.S. may face prolonged military engagements [27].

100美元被视为当前市场判断中东局势进一步恶化的重要心理阈值。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 尽管霍尔木兹海峡目前尚未出现正式、持续性的军事封锁，各方关于是否"关闭海峡"的表态也存在明 显分歧，但从实际航运行为来看，该水道的通行效率已经出现显著下降。 根据MarineTraffic追踪数据，多艘油轮已在波斯湾及海峡两侧海域锚泊等待，等待局势进一步明朗后 再决定是否通过海峡。路透报道称，至少150艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡及周边海域停泊等待，部分航运公 司和能源贸易商已暂停经该海峡运输原油和液化天然气。 回顾历史，在地缘冲突中，即使石油运输通道受到干扰，实际供应冲击通常不会等同于全部过境原油的 即时消失。市场仍存在若干缓冲机制，可以在一定程度上缓解供应中断带来的影响。 一、对全球石油供应的潜在影响 霍尔木兹海峡是全球最关键的能源运输通道之一。2025年约有1500万桶/日的原油通过该海峡运输， 约占全球原油海运贸易量的34%。因此，一旦该航道出现封锁或运输严重受阻，将直接对全球石油供 应形成冲击。 从贸易流向看，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油绝大部分流向亚洲市场。中国和印度是最大的接收方，两 国合计接收约44%的出口 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of policy operation remains focused on balancing short-term and long-term goals, with an increased emphasis on long-term objectives in the 2026 government work report [4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting a shift towards more realistic and sustainable growth rather than an absolute target [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform measures alongside macroeconomic policies to drive high-quality development and enhance economic efficiency [6] Group 2 - The fiscal policy shows a new characteristic of "quasi-fiscal efforts," with a deficit rate planned at around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from last year [7] - A new 1 trillion yuan fiscal-financial collaborative fund is introduced to support domestic demand, with a focus on consumer spending [8] - The report outlines measures to boost consumption, including 2.5 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing consumer goods and increased loan interest subsidies [10] Group 3 - The importance of reform has risen, with a focus on building a unified national market and addressing issues like "involution" and market-oriented reforms [12] - The report highlights the need for public utility price reforms to enhance local fiscal autonomy and promote sustainable operations [13] - Measures to stimulate the vitality of various business entities are emphasized, including improving laws and regulations to support private enterprises [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing and practicing a "correct view of achievements" as a guiding principle for policy-making, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and local government leadership changes [3]. Group 1: Economic Goals and Adjustments - Many provinces have shifted from fixed GDP targets to range-based targets, reflecting a new approach to economic planning that prioritizes sustainable growth over rigid numerical goals [6][7]. - Nearly 60% of provinces have lowered their GDP growth targets for this year, with adjustments based on the previous year's performance, indicating a more realistic and pragmatic approach to economic forecasting [7][8]. - The emphasis on flexible GDP targets allows for a better balance between various objectives, such as public welfare, debt management, and environmental concerns, rather than focusing solely on short-term growth metrics [6][8]. Group 2: Development Strategies - Local governments are increasingly focusing on the quality of development rather than merely numerical achievements, tailoring their strategies to align with central directives and local conditions [9][10]. - Economic powerhouses like Guangdong and Jiangsu are emphasizing the integration of advanced manufacturing and service sectors, while non-economic provinces are prioritizing improvements in the business environment to boost consumer and investor confidence [10][11]. - Provinces with a high proportion of private enterprises, such as Fujian and Hunan, are actively supporting the growth of the private sector, highlighting the government's role in facilitating business development [11]. Group 3: Correct View of Achievements - The article discusses the need to correct various misconceptions about performance metrics, such as prioritizing short-term results over long-term stability and neglecting foundational work for future growth [12][13]. - The correct view of achievements is expected to facilitate the construction of a unified national market, reducing unnecessary competition and allowing for the natural exit of unsuitable businesses, thereby enhancing overall market efficiency [12][14]. - The focus on serving the public and improving living standards is becoming a key measure of success, with local governments increasingly addressing issues related to healthcare, elderly care, and housing quality [13].