Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative chain reaction characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment, exacerbated by the pervasive influence of AI on various economic sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Downturn - The cyclical downturn in the U.S. economy has become increasingly evident since the beginning of the year, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and service sectors showing continuous decline [5]. - Tariff policies have significantly disrupted the economic rhythm, leading to a preemptive economic activity surge in early months, followed by a consistent decline in consumer spending and inventory accumulation starting in May [9]. - The sales volume of corrugated boxes, a retail barometer, hit a 10-year low in Q3, reflecting the current sluggish state of U.S. consumer spending [9][10]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 50.3, indicating deteriorating economic performance [17]. Group 2: Temporary Shocks - The U.S. government shutdown has become a significant economic and livelihood crisis, lasting 43 days, surpassing the previous record [18]. - The shutdown has put immense pressure on the job market, affecting approximately 2.3 million federal employees and contractors, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential public safety risks [19]. - The shutdown has resulted in an estimated $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with projections indicating a 0.1% economic growth decline for each week of the shutdown, potentially leading to a 2% drop in Q4 growth [19]. - The economic pressure is extending from the middle class to low-income groups, with SNAP benefits halved, impacting retail sales by an estimated 1.5%-2% [22]. Group 3: Structural Distortions - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken [23]. - AI investments are driving demand for chips and related infrastructure, while simultaneously causing electricity prices to rise due to increased consumption from AI data centers, which now account for about 5% of the U.S. power generation [24]. - AI-related job cuts are occurring as companies streamline operations, with significant layoffs reported by major tech firms like Amazon and Meta, further exacerbating employment pressures [28]. - The economic landscape is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumer spending remaining robust while lower-income consumers face significant financial strain, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [29].

Group 1: AI and Economic Impact - AI-related investments are projected to contribute 1.57 percentage points to the US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing the contribution from private consumption [6] - The nominal value added from data processing services in the US GDP has increased significantly, reaching 1.75%, while manufacturing's share has dropped below 10% for the first time since 1995 [10] - The real value added per capita in AI-related industries has grown at an annualized rate of 12.66%, significantly higher than the 1.56% growth in manufacturing [13] Group 2: AI and Employment - The penetration of AI technology in the workforce is still low, with only 6 out of 20 major industries exceeding a 10% usage rate [31] - The impact of AI on employment is overstated, as the current job weakness is more related to the previous interest rate hikes rather than AI [31][34] - AI's primary utility remains in information search and marketing, with limited adoption in enhancing productivity through new workflows [39] Group 3: AI and Financial Sector - The capital expenditures of tech companies are increasing, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, particularly among major players like Microsoft and Amazon [50][51] - The total issuance of bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion in 2025, indicating a significant reliance on external financing [56] - The rapid growth of private credit, particularly in the tech sector, raises concerns about transparency and potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [72]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data and its implications for global trade, particularly focusing on China's exports to the U.S. and the overall demand from the U.S. market [4][9]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Conditions - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, making it difficult to assess the U.S. economic fundamentals [4]. - As of October, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 1.8 percentage points compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization [4]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, reflecting a decline in economic sentiment among consumers [9]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China's exports of intermediate goods to the U.S. showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 18.5% in September, which is better than the 24.1% decline in consumer goods [4]. - Taiwan's exports to the U.S. surged by 49.7% in October, driven by a 138.2% increase in information, communication, and audio-visual products, indicating strong demand for technology-related goods [5]. - Mexico's automotive production and exports fell by 4% and 5.5% respectively due to U.S. tariffs, highlighting the negative impact of trade policies on regional exports [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current export data primarily reflects the third-quarter U.S. demand and has not yet captured the full impact of the government shutdown [9]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the prolonged shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [9]. - Overall, except for capital goods related to computing power, exports to the U.S. from various countries are expected to face downward pressure as U.S. demand weakens [9].

Core Viewpoint - The upward momentum of the US dollar in the near term is primarily driven by "political turmoil" in non-US developed economies, while the downward pressure stems from the "economic weakness" within the US. Overall, the dollar's rebound lacks sustainability, indicating a potential end to its strength and a shift towards a period of range-bound fluctuations [2][13]. Summary by Sections Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index, which had been weak in the first half of the year, recently surpassed the 100 mark for the first time in five and a half months. This rebound is attributed to ongoing political turmoil in France and strengthened by Japan's political developments, culminating in a hawkish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in October [4][6]. US Economic Context - The US economy faces increased downward pressure amid the longest government shutdown in history, complicating the validation of economic perspectives due to a lack of official data. The shutdown has created a "tightening effect" by pausing non-essential government spending, which is expected to worsen conditions for lower-income Americans [6][13]. Non-US Economic Factors - The Japanese yen's recent depreciation reflects market concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's delayed interest rate hikes and the disconnect between GDP growth and stagnant wage growth. The potential for further yen weakness may limit the dollar's upward momentum, while the UK's tax increase plans could introduce new external variables affecting the dollar [9][11][13]. UK Economic Developments - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' recent public support for tax increases and spending cuts has raised concerns about fiscal tightening's impact on economic growth. This shift in fiscal policy expectations has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, potentially driving the dollar index higher [13]. Future Outlook - The dollar's trajectory will largely depend on internal US factors, including the potential for government reopening, mid-term monetary policy adjustments, and long-term fiscal deficits. The evolution of the AI bubble will also play a crucial role in shaping the dollar's future [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting in October, highlighting Powell's hawkish stance while also hinting at the possibility of rate cuts by the end of the year, reflecting a complex balance between inflation control and employment concerns [2][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Shifts - Since late July, Powell has oscillated between focusing on inflation risks and employment concerns, initially emphasizing tighter monetary policy to combat inflation, but later shifting to a more dovish tone due to employment risks [4]. - The September FOMC meeting saw a 25 basis point rate cut, reinforcing expectations for further cuts by the end of the year, with the market pricing in a total of 75 basis points in cuts [4][6]. Divergence Among Committee Members - The October meeting revealed significant internal disagreements among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with a notable 10 to 2 vote split, indicating a lack of consensus on the necessity of further cuts [6][7]. - Powell's role as chair is to unify decision-making, but the increasing difficulty in achieving this consensus is evident, as he aims to manage expectations while mitigating risks associated with potential policy missteps [7]. Employment and Inflation Outlook - Powell expressed cautious optimism about the labor market, citing stable unemployment claims and job vacancies, yet acknowledged that many indicators suggest a weakening employment landscape [8][12]. - Non-official data indicates ongoing employment risks, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which could have prolonged impacts on the labor market [15]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell introduced a new measure, non-tariff core PCE, suggesting that inflation is not deviating significantly from the 2% target, despite acknowledging the potential impact of tariffs on economic dynamics [17]. - The Fed's approach to inflation remains cautious, with Powell emphasizing the need for close monitoring of economic conditions and the effects of potential rate cuts on the real economy [17]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity Considerations - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction was seen as a necessary adjustment, given the tightening liquidity conditions in the market, with the Fed having successfully reduced its balance sheet by 30.3% over 177 weeks [19][21]. - The current environment does not necessitate a return to quantitative easing unless specific liquidity risks arise [21]. AI and Economic Growth - Powell addressed the impact of AI on economic growth, noting that while AI investments are expected to boost GDP, current capital expenditures remain insensitive to interest rates, reflecting a cautious stance on the relationship between AI and economic performance [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key elements of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) in China, emphasizing the importance of economic growth, domestic consumption, high-quality development, and the establishment of a unified national market while ensuring security in development [3][5][15]. Group 1: Importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, building on the foundation laid by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - The overall requirement is to "consolidate the foundation and exert comprehensive efforts," indicating a continuation of the previous plan's principles while allowing for adjustments based on future conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Economic and Social Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range, with a specific focus on increasing the per capita GDP to the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [7][8]. - The plan acknowledges current economic pressures and emphasizes the need to enhance domestic consumption, particularly through increasing the resident consumption rate, which is projected to be 39.9% in 2024, only a slight increase from 2019 [8][9]. Group 3: Strengthening Domestic Circulation - The plan reiterates the importance of a "dual circulation" development model, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation to address external uncertainties [11]. - It emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies to enhance domestic demand, improve market competition, and eliminate barriers to a unified national market [11][12]. Group 4: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is identified as the central theme of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance and the modernization of the industrial system [14]. - The plan aims to optimize traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy, aerospace, and advanced technologies [14]. Group 5: Balancing Development and Security - The plan highlights the interdependence of development and security, stressing the need for a robust national security framework amid increasing external risks [15]. - Key areas of focus include enhancing foreign security mechanisms, safeguarding strategic channels, and building capabilities in emerging fields such as AI and cybersecurity [15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, based on indicators such as second-hand housing transaction ratios, rental yield rates, and housing price-to-income ratios [2][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Ratio - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand housing increasingly replacing new housing [5]. - The average annual increase in the second-hand housing transaction ratio is projected to be 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with expectations for it to reach around 50% by 2025 [5][12]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the second-hand housing transaction ratio in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [12][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield Rate - The rental yield rate is a key indicator of the stability of second-hand housing prices, with a current national average of 2.37%, which is still 10-20 basis points below the reasonable level of around 2.5% [22][23]. - A rental yield rate that approaches the public housing loan interest rate of approximately 2.5%-2.6% is considered reasonable, indicating a balance between renting and buying [17][20]. - If rental prices stabilize, the rental yield rate is expected to reach a reasonable level by the second quarter of next year, potentially leading to a stabilization in housing prices [22][27]. Group 3: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio - The housing price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is reported at 12.3 and 9.6, respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range [28][30]. - The overall housing price has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, contributing to a more favorable housing price-to-income ratio [30][34]. - The current housing price-to-income ratios suggest that the market has significantly digested previous bubbles, with major cities showing ratios below 15 [28][30]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing transaction ratio and rental yield rate approaching reasonable levels [34][37]. - The sequence of stabilization is expected to be new good houses, old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses, with new good houses stabilizing first due to their strong product appeal [39][41]. - The overall stabilization of the real estate market will depend on macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, alongside the internal dynamics of the real estate market [34][37].

Core Viewpoint - The current issues in the real estate market are characterized by "volume" for new homes and "price" for second-hand homes, with new home sales declining due to structural changes in transactions as second-hand homes increasingly replace new home sales [2][12][16]. New Home Market - The new home market is experiencing a continuous decline in transaction volume, with sales area dropping by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September, and a significant 11.4% decline in September compared to the previous year [4]. - The sales area of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 20.1% year-on-year in the first nine months, with September showing a year-on-year decline of 14.7%, an improvement from August's 31.3% drop [4]. - New home prices continue to rise, with a 2.7% year-on-year increase in September, and a slight 0.1% month-on-month growth. Price trends vary significantly between first/second-tier cities and third/fourth-tier cities [4][12]. Second-Hand Home Market - In contrast, the second-hand home market has seen a volume increase but a price decline, with transaction volume in 18 sample cities growing by 17.1% year-on-year from January to September, and a notable 29.7% increase in September compared to the previous year [8]. - Second-hand home prices have been under pressure, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in September, marking the 41st consecutive month of price drops, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [8]. - The price decline is most pronounced in second-tier cities, with September showing a month-on-month drop of 0.9% and a year-on-year decline of 8.3% [8]. Market Dynamics - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes has stabilized around 15 billion square meters since 2022, following a significant drop from 19.3 billion square meters in 2021 [12][14]. - The share of second-hand home transactions has increased from 19% in 2021 to an expected 46% in 2024, with projections suggesting it may reach around 50% by 2025 [17]. - The market is expected to stabilize as the pressure from new home sales diminishes and the inventory of new homes continues to decrease, with a monthly reduction of approximately 20 million square meters [17][19]. Future Outlook - The new home sales area is projected to remain at 7.5 billion square meters by 2025, with new construction and completion areas declining to 6 billion and 5 billion square meters, respectively [17]. - The second-hand home market is entering a "de-inventory" phase, with a decrease in new listings since July, indicating a shift towards a balance in supply and demand [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which is seen as a crucial time for consolidating foundations and advancing towards long-term goals set for 2035 [2][3][4] - The article highlights the need for high-quality development, technological self-reliance, comprehensive deepening of reforms, and improvements in social civilization and people's living standards as key objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines that the main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.4% over the next decade [5][6] - Specific goals are broken down into thirteen categories, with a notable shift in focus from technology innovation to building a modern industrial system, indicating a transition towards practical applications of technological advancements [7][8] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and constructing a high-level socialist market economy is highlighted, with a stronger focus on consumer spending and social welfare investments [8][9] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of establishing a unified national market, which is expected to facilitate the development of new productive forces and promote sustainable economic growth [8][9] - It notes a significant shift in the priority of expanding high-level openness, reflecting the need for China to engage more actively in global economic cooperation amidst rising protectionism [9][10] - The commitment to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 remains a critical goal, with expectations that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will see significant progress towards these targets [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold as it transitions from a safe-haven asset to a high-volatility asset, highlighting both technical factors and the fading of short-term drivers. While short-term fluctuations are expected, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing concerns about fiat currency depreciation and geopolitical instability [2][4][29]. Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold has experienced a remarkable increase of over 60% this year, but a significant correction occurred after reaching $4,300 per ounce, with a daily drop of up to 6% [4]. - Technical indicators show that gold is currently "extremely overbought," with both short-term and long-term price deviations at the 100th percentile, suggesting a high likelihood of a price correction [6]. - Gold prices have reached 45 historical highs this year, with a 30% increase in less than two months since August 21, which is unprecedented in recent bull market conditions. Historical data indicates that such rapid increases typically lead to an average pullback of 4% within a month [7]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Movement - The World Gold Council's GRAM model attributes monthly gold returns to several factors, including economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, FX opportunity cost, interest rate opportunity cost, momentum, and a residual component [9]. - In August and September, gold returns were 4.69% and 11.26%, respectively, with significant contributions from the residual component, indicating a decrease in the explanatory power of short-term price movements [10]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by increased liquidity and a hedge against the AI bubble, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in Europe and the U.S. prior to recent market adjustments [14][22]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by the erosion of the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency, driven by persistent fiscal deficits and declining geopolitical influence [24]. - The average annual federal deficit rate in the U.S. has reached 6.3% over the past 17 years, significantly higher than pre-financial crisis levels, contributing to the depreciation of the dollar against tangible assets like gold [24]. - As long as global stagflation and chaos persist, gold is expected to remain in a long-term upward trend, serving as a hedge against the long-term depreciation of fiat currency [29].