美国贸易政策的核心变数仍然是特朗普本人，在未来两三年的任期里，这种高度争议 性的关税策略料将屡见不鲜， 任何国家若想掌握未来的话语权，就必须成为连接不同 贸易圈的"最大公约数"。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 在特朗普的经济政策工具箱中，关税无疑是他最为钟爱且频繁使用的工具。从第一任期内的"小试牛 刀"，到第二任期中表现出的"游刃有余"，特朗普关税已成为其标志性政治遗产的一部分。 一、 特朗普2.0关税体系 在第一个任期内，特朗普就以"美国优先"为核心，掀起了一场以关税为主要武器的贸易革命，主要表 现为针对特定问题的"外科手术式"打击：依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，以维护国家安全为 名对全球钢铝产品加征关税；并援引《1974年贸易法》第301条款，对数千亿美元的中国商品加征关 税。这些行动点燃了全球范围的贸易争端，改变了国际贸易的既有格局。 地缘战略伙伴，则因其独特的战略价值，亦被准予进入这一梯队。再向外延伸，越南、马来西亚等东盟 国家面临着19%至20%的中等税率壁垒。而所有其他未被归类的国家位于最外缘，需面对25%以上的 高税率。 根据特朗普7月30日签署的一项行政令，美国将从8月29日起 ...

一、全球风险偏好改善的根源——美元流动性 本轮全球股市上涨的主要根源来自于美国 ：政策端体现为特朗普对外频频TACO，赋予了资金进一步 押注的信心；资产端体现为美元流动性愈发宽松，对全球市场产生外溢效应。美元流动性覆盖多市场、 多资产，与美联储货币政策节奏、跨境资本流动等因素均有密切联系。 近期我们观察到美元流动性在以下五个维度发生变化： 全球风险偏好回升及股市上涨的核心在于美元流动性宽松，风险可能来自于联储政策或跨 境资本流动变化造成美元流动性逆转，AI资本开支被阶段性证伪导致科技股回调，特朗普 政策变化导致TACO预期反转。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 对 等 关 税 后 全 球 市 场 风 险 偏 好 回 升 的 程 度 令 人 惊 叹 。 每 一 次 TACO （ Trump Always Chickens Out） 交易之后，是资金更加笃定地下注。发达市场中的美股、欧股、日股，新兴市场中的韩股、台 股、越股均创下新高， A股、港股也在新热点和新叙事的引领下进入牛市氛围，股债跷跷板效应强 化。 除了"政策风险变利好"的TACO交易外，全球风险偏好改善的根源在何处？如何丈量市场的泡沫？我们 尝试从赔率的视角观察 ...

鲍威尔很难在杰克逊霍尔会议给出任何清晰的降息指引，当前积极定价的9月降息 25bp将直面联储主席的抗争。如果有指引，那更可能是引导鹰派降息预期：年内更少 的降息幅度，更高的终点利率水平。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 尽管过去一年联储已经下调了100bp的基准利率，但当下美国的宏观环境比去年同期更为严峻，美国 经济进入2025年后增速的明显放缓也需要用降息加以对冲。 在这个过程中，降息对实体经济（信用）的刺激将主要来自于金融条件宽松、财富效应扩散以及预期改 善。在犹豫之中，美国硬数据的下行趋势或还将延续；鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的态度也值得关注。 从最关心的降息路径来看，我们认为鲍威尔很难在杰克逊霍尔会议给出清晰的降息指引，当前积极定价 的9月降息25bp将直面联储主席的抗争。如果有指引，那更可能是引导鹰派降息预期：年内更少的降 息幅度，更高的终点利率水平。 7月非农报告中对前值的大幅下修一度带来恐慌，但随着市场意识到应当关注修正的"比例"而非"绝对 值"后，衰退预期开始消散。 就业的疲软也被归因于劳动力供给的趋势走弱和短期噪音的"坏运气共振"；这份报告对9月降息的推动 大致止步于此，难以一锤定音降息的发生 ...

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 7 月经济数据公布 8 月初汽车销量转负 美国关税税率进一步上行 韩国出口高频开始走弱 8 月主要大宗商品现货表现偏弱 7月经济数据呈现外需强于内需、生产强于需求、不变价强于现价的格局。 生产端， 7月 工增、服务业生产指数不变价同比增长5.7%、5.8%，但 价格处于年内低位。 01 7月经济数据公布 #本期Headline# 展望后续，随着今年7月下旬第三批补贴资金下发各地，部分地区"以旧换新"逐步重启，政策对汽车补贴的力度有所加强，但汽车价格战力度减弱，消费者 购车成本上行，观望情绪或维持高位。 需求端， 出口一枝独秀。7月社零同比增长3.7%，前值4.8%，固定资产投资完成额1-7月累计同比下滑1.2个百分点至1.6%，制造业、基建、房地产投资累计 同比均回落。 相比于实体经济走弱，7月社融同比增长9%，M1同比增长5.6%，创年内新高。 我们估算7月GDP不变价增速在5%左右，7月GDP平减指数为-1.4%，对应现价GDP增速在3.6%左右 ...

政策保持定力。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 8月15日，央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告。报告大致延续了7月政治局会议和二季度货币政策例会的定调，强调"贸易壁垒增多…当前我国经济运行 依然面临不少风险挑战"，下一阶段要"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"、"用好结构性货币政策工具"。 二季度货币政策执行报告有三点值得关注： 第一，对物价回升的表述更加积极。 二季度货币政策执行报告对物价的表述从一季度报告中的"物价水平有望保持低位回升态势"和二季度例会中的"物价持续低位运行"修改为"物价水平温和 回升积极因素增多"，表述更加积极。 年内PPI同比或将触底回升，去年同期偏低的基数（2024年8、9月PPI环比分别-0.7%、-0.6%）叠加"反内卷"对大宗商品价格的影响，为8、9月PPI 同比增速回升创造一定条件。 但7月经济数据显著回落，仅出口继续超预期，固投累计增速下滑1.2个百分点至1.6%，社零增速回落1.1个百分点至3.7%。估算7月实际GDP同比为 5%左右，GDP平减指数为-1.4%左右，名义GDP增速为3.6%左右，较2季度进一步下降。 往后看，出口或面临透支效应拖累，PPI回升的持续性和力度也需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff changes on U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting a decline in U.S. import growth and the subsequent effects on China's exports, while also noting opportunities for China to benefit from exports to ASEAN and Africa before new tariffs take effect [3][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Import Trends and China's Export Dynamics - U.S. import growth has shifted from 31% in March to -2.9% in June, indicating a move into a destocking phase [3]. - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline, with a 44% drop in June, and a subsequent weakening in July, contributing to a 3.3 percentage point decrease in China's overall export growth [3][4]. - Despite the decline in U.S. imports from China, exports to ASEAN and Africa have surged, with U.S. imports from ASEAN maintaining a growth rate of around 30% from April to June [4][5]. Group 2: Export Opportunities in ASEAN and Africa - China's exports to Vietnam increased significantly, with machinery and electrical equipment seeing growth rates of 35.3% and 44.9% respectively from January to June [4]. - Exports to Africa also showed strong growth, with a 42.8% increase in July, contributing 1.9 percentage points to China's overall export growth [5]. - The article notes that the "export rush" to ASEAN and Africa may face challenges with the introduction of higher tariffs on August 8, which could pressure China's re-export trade [5]. Group 3: European Union Export Growth - China's exports to the EU grew by 9.2% in July, driven by improved economic conditions in the EU, which is China's second-largest export market [9][10]. - The increase in exports to the EU is attributed to China's competitive advantages in capital goods, with significant growth in exports of electrical machinery and vehicles [9][10]. - The EU's economic stability, with a GDP growth of 1.5% in Q2 2025, supports the resilience of Chinese exports to this region [10][11]. Group 4: Short-term Demand Challenges - The article highlights potential short-term demand declines, particularly from the U.S., which could negatively impact China's export performance [13][14]. - The effects of tariffs are expected to lead to a sharp decline in exports, with a notable drop from 9% in March to -21% in April for exports to the U.S. [14]. - The overall export share for China has increased to 16.4% among major sample countries, but the demand side pressures may limit further growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on the potential threat of secondary tariffs and the overall strategic stability in U.S.-China relations [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariff Delays - On August 12, Trump signed an executive order to delay 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days while maintaining 10% tariffs, which was anticipated by the market [4]. - The delay occurred at the last moment, suggesting a possible deterrent strategy [4]. Secondary Tariff Threats - Trump's threat to impose a 25% secondary tariff on China is not merely about increasing oil purchases but is aimed at leveraging China's influence on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire [5][6]. - The U.S. trade war has not effectively pressured China’s manufacturing or exports, and it has provided other countries with reasons to remain passive [5]. Energy Security Concerns - The secondary tariff threat touches on China's energy security, which is a more sensitive issue compared to trade in oil or agricultural products [6]. - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and the trade war, emphasizing that there are no winners in such conflicts [6]. U.S.-Russia Relations and Its Impact - Trump's dual approach towards Russia includes military support for Ukraine and economic pressure through tariffs on countries buying Russian oil [6]. - A successful U.S.-Russia meeting could reduce the immediate need for secondary tariffs against China [6]. Future of U.S.-China Relations - The article predicts that U.S.-China relations will remain "strategically stable" and gradually improve, setting the stage for potential high-level meetings [7]. - The U.S. has specific demands from China regarding issues like rare earths and fentanyl, but the leverage has diminished recently [7]. Negotiation Dynamics - Achieving significant breakthroughs in negotiations will take time and depend on the outcomes of future high-level dialogues [7]. - The current trade war may hinder the U.S. from effectively engaging allies, as countries may choose to wait and see how U.S.-China relations evolve [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally is driven by the rising sentiment among retail investors and the return of foreign capital, with insurance funds providing long-term support. The sustainability of this trend depends on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity environment under a weak dollar [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the A-share market experienced a "bottom-up" bull market atmosphere, with the ChiNext Index rising over 8% for the month and daily trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets frequently exceeding 1.5 trillion [4]. - The improvement in market sentiment is attributed to the easing of Sino-U.S. relations and tariff issues, along with the maturation of TACO trading and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have provided support for dollar liquidity [4]. Group 2: Types of Market Participants National Team - The central government’s capital, represented by Central Huijin Investment, has been absent from the market, with net outflows from broad-based ETFs since May, while industry-specific ETFs saw sustained inflows in July [5]. Institutions - Institutional "super large orders" have seen continuous net outflows since July, indicating limited motivation for public funds to increase positions. The average daily trading volume in key sectors like technology, finance, and consumption has been rising [5][6]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the equity position of actively managed public funds in A-shares is at 71.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points over the past year, with total net assets at 3.4 trillion, the lowest in 20 quarters [5]. Retail Investors - Retail investors have emerged as the main source of incremental funds during the July bull market, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching 1.96 million, above the 60th percentile level over the past three years [7]. - The net inflow of small orders (below 40,000 yuan) increased by 39% month-on-month in July, and the total trading volume on the A-share "Dragon and Tiger List" rose by 7.5% compared to June [7][8]. Foreign Capital - Foreign capital has shown signs of recovery, with average daily trading volume of northbound funds increasing by 36.3% in July compared to June, marking the first time since the "924 market" that both daily trading volume and market share have risen simultaneously [8][9]. - The net inflow of ETFs focused on investing in China reached $199 million in the past month, surpassing the total for the previous three months and accounting for 47% of last year's total net inflow [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the A-share and H-share market rally will depend on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity released by a weak dollar [9].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between the US and Russian leaders marks the formal initiation of peace talks, with expectations for a principled framework, but the path to a comprehensive ceasefire remains long and challenging. The long-term outcome will primarily be determined by military strength, while the short-term may help ease US-China risks [2]. Group 1: Trump's First 200 Days - In the first 100 days, Trump actively sought to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but his approach faced significant controversy, leading to strained relations with traditional European allies and Ukraine [5]. - Trump's isolationist and pro-Russian stance caused considerable upheaval, prompting the EU to initiate an €800 billion "rearmament" plan and increasing distrust towards the US, reflected in the decline of the dollar index from 110 in January to 98 in late April [6]. - During the second 100 days, Trump shifted focus away from mediation efforts after unsuccessful attempts to coordinate talks, instead prioritizing domestic tax cuts and external tariff negotiations [7][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments and Negotiation Landscape - The third 100 days saw Trump return to mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adjusting his stance to increase military aid to Ukraine while threatening sanctions against Russia and countries purchasing Russian oil [11]. - The summer offensive by Russia achieved limited territorial gains, with an average advance of 488 square kilometers per month from May to July, which is still less than 1% of Ukraine's territory [11]. - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 is anticipated to yield some form of agreement or consensus, differing from previous talks without direct leader involvement [12][13]. Group 3: Assessment of Negotiation Prospects - The meeting is expected to signify the formal start of peace negotiations, with potential for a framework agreement, but achieving a comprehensive ceasefire in the short term remains unlikely due to numerous detailed issues [16]. - The conditions for negotiation have become more pragmatic, with Russia willing to agree to a ceasefire if Ukraine withdraws from Donetsk, although significant political risks remain for Ukraine [14][15]. - The outcome of the negotiations will largely depend on battlefield realities, particularly the situation following the summer offensive, with potential implications for gold and energy prices, as well as US-China relations [16].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Divergence - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat at -3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points to -0.2%, slightly below the consensus expectation of -3.4% [7][3][11] Group 2: Export Shipping Data Decline - High tariffs have led to a decline in high-frequency data related to Chinese exports. In the first week of August, the average number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. was 53 vessels per day, down from 65 vessels in July. The total container ship load decreased from 500,000 TEU to 430,000 TEU [5][6] Group 3: Beijing Real Estate Policy Changes - On August 8, Beijing announced new real estate policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans. The market is observing whether other cities will follow suit with similar policies [7][8] Group 4: Divergence of RMB Middle Rate and Offshore Rate - At the end of July, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.21 against the USD but has since fluctuated around 7.17. The People's Bank of China has shown a more supportive stance towards the RMB exchange rate, with the middle rate rising to 7.13 on August 7, the highest since 2025 [9][11] Group 5: Excavator Sales and Operating Hours - In July, domestic excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. However, the average working hours for major construction machinery products fell to 80.8 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%. This decline in working hours may be attributed to the high-temperature season and weaker operational rates [11][12]