2025年下半年食品饮料行业展望｜趋势分化，内需消费擎动发展

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery trend in consumer goods, driven by a rebound in retail sales and an increase in disposable income, alongside a notable recovery in the food and beverage sector [2][3]. Retail Sales and Consumer Income - In March 2025, total retail sales increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while per capita disposable income saw a cumulative real increase of 5.6% [3][5][7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food declined by 1.4%, contributing to an overall CPI decrease of 0.1% [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is experiencing significant price differentiation, with overall transaction volumes under pressure [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with sales of liquor and beer facing pressure, while the price index for condiments has risen to its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a recovery in the dining industry [3][9]. Investment Themes Theme 1: Urban Consumption Recovery - High-tier cities are leading the recovery in domestic demand, with cities like Chongqing showing strong growth in retail sales, while traditional high-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing are under pressure [9][10]. - In the first two months of 2025, Chongqing's retail sales reached 28.32 billion, up 8% year-on-year, while Shanghai's sales fell by 11% [14]. Theme 2: Restaurant Consumption Recovery - The restaurant sector is showing a positive trend, with total revenue from large-scale enterprises reaching 134 billion in March 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [15][20]. - The recovery in restaurant consumption is expected to boost the performance of upstream suppliers and drive growth in ready-to-drink products, particularly in the beer sector [15][17]. Theme 3: Domestic Demand vs. Export Fluctuations - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand have been introduced, with infrastructure investment growing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [18][25]. - The consumer confidence index showed a slight increase in February 2025, indicating a gradual expansion of domestic demand [18][19]. Theme 4: High Dividend Yield - The food and beverage sector has a relatively high dividend payout ratio, with an average cash market value ratio of 11% and an average payout ratio of 112% in 2024, suggesting a strong willingness to distribute dividends [21][27].