Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market risks are primarily stemming from the U.S., particularly due to Trump's erratic policies, which have increased economic friction. The dollar is expected to weaken, and this trend will gain more recognition over time, while U.S. stocks remain high [1][29]. - Recent developments indicate that tariffs are showing signs of improvement, as a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stocks [9][10]. - The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming safe-haven assets, with capital flowing into the Hong Kong market, evidenced by a dramatic drop in Hibor rates from 4 to near 0 [2][25]. Group 2 - The volatility in the market has been heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, with the VIX index experiencing its fastest rise in history [6][11]. - Despite a slowing fundamental backdrop, liquidity is returning to the Hong Kong market, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may reach new highs in the second half of the year [2][28]. - The dollar's current account deficit has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a likely continued weakening of the dollar, which is shifting from a safe-haven to a risk asset [18][20]. Group 3 - The relationship between A-shares and precious metals like gold and silver has evolved, with A-shares now reflecting safe-haven characteristics, particularly in the context of recent market downturns [21][22]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is significant, with a notable increase in the monetary base, suggesting a robust liquidity environment that could support further market gains [25][27]. - The market's response to the potential resolution of tariff issues could positively impact inflation expectations, as the worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [11][12].
洪灏最新分享2025下半年投资机会：资金在不断涌入港股，A股成避险资产
对冲研投·2025-05-30 11:43