价格回落势头渐止——5月PMI数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].