高工锂电·2025-05-31 12:06Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is facing a dual pressure from falling lithium prices and a renewed price war in the domestic automotive market, leading to a "double weak" supply and demand situation [3][10]. Group 1: Lithium Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures has dropped below 60,000 RMB/ton, a decline of over 20% since the end of 2024 [3]. - The spot market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is hovering around 60,000 RMB/ton, down from approximately 78,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year [4]. - The average CIF price of 6% lithium spodumene has decreased from 825 USD/ton to 645 USD/ton since April 2025, marking a decline of over 20% [4]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - New project capacities, particularly in South American salt lakes and African lithium mines, are significantly increasing [5]. - In April, China imported 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month increase of 56% and a year-on-year increase of 18% [5]. - As of May 2025, the total social inventory of lithium carbonate in China reached 131,700 tons, with salt plant inventory increasing by 8.8% [7]. Group 3: Automotive Market Developments - The domestic automotive market is experiencing a renewed price war, initiated by BYD, which launched limited-time "subsidized prices" for 22 models due to a retail sales growth slowdown to 14.9% in the first four months of 2025 [8]. - Other brands, including Leap Motor, Changan, and Buick, have also joined the price-cutting promotions, indicating a fierce competitive environment [9]. - The price war has extended to the smart driving sector, with companies like XPeng offering competitively priced models featuring advanced technology [9]. Group 4: Industry Profitability and Trends - Despite BYD's gross margin of 20.1% in Q1 2025, the overall profit margin for the domestic automotive manufacturing industry is slightly above 4%, indicating increased pressure from the price war [9]. - The lithium battery industry is entering a traditional off-season, with a 4.3% month-on-month decline in the installation volume of power batteries in April 2025 [10].