深度 | 欧洲复兴，对铜价影响几何？——掘金欧洲系列之三【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with significant military and infrastructure investments in Europe, is expected to create substantial incremental demand for copper, impacting its supply-demand dynamics and pricing [1][4][18]. Group 2 - The supply-demand structure of refined copper has shown a tightening supply since 2010, but a surplus is anticipated in 2024 for the first time in 15 years, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 0.04% of global copper production if Russian production returns to pre-conflict levels [5][16]. - The primary source of refined copper is primary copper, which is derived from copper mining, and the current trend shows a continuous decline in copper resources and grades, leading to a tight supply in both the short and long term [6][11]. - The demand for copper is primarily driven by industrial needs, with electricity accounting for about 40% of total copper consumption, while developed economies focus more on replacement and maintenance rather than new infrastructure [20][22]. Group 3 - Short-term factors that may exceed expectations include tariff policies, particularly the ongoing Section 232 investigation initiated by Trump, which could lead to a potential price increase of around 10% if tariffs are adjusted [2][30]. - Long-term themes for copper investment include energy transition, with clean energy and electric vehicle demand expected to contribute significantly to copper consumption, potentially adding 2% to total demand [39][41][44]. Group 4 - The article predicts that copper prices still have upward potential, with an estimated increase of over 10% by the end of the year, driven by a marginal demand increase of approximately 3% [3][50]. - Factors such as the outcome of the tariff investigation and the potential for new investment in energy infrastructure are expected to create volatility in copper prices, with a possible fluctuation of around 10% [32][50].