950亿美金！高盛最新预测2030年减肥药市场规模

Core Viewpoint - The anti-obesity drug market, particularly GLP-1 based injectable drugs, is still in its early stages and the market landscape is evolving. Goldman Sachs has revised its global market forecast for this sector to reach $95 billion by 2030, down from a previous estimate of $130 billion. In the U.S., the peak market forecast has been lowered to $70 billion, while the non-U.S. market forecast has been increased to $50 billion due to greater penetration potential outside the U.S. [2] Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - The updated global and U.S. market forecasts consider significant price declines per unit of medication and stricter insurance reimbursement policies. The patient population is becoming more segmented based on varying weight loss needs. The market is expected to exhibit a "consumerization" trend overseas, with more individuals opting to pay out-of-pocket for lower-priced versions. [3] - The previous model anticipated a smaller price decline, estimating an average annual price drop of about 2% from 2025 to 2035. However, the new model adopts a more cautious assumption of a 7% average annual price decline. In the U.S. market, pricing is the largest variable affecting market peak sales. [6] Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Market Dynamics - The probability of insurance coverage for anti-obesity drugs has been adjusted from 70% to 50% due to changes in government and cautious attitudes from insurance companies regarding reimbursement for obesity medications. [8] - Outside the U.S., approximately 300 million obese but non-diabetic patients exist, with obesity rates expected to continue rising in many countries. These markets primarily rely on out-of-pocket payments, with starting prices estimated to be about 70% lower than in the U.S. The peak penetration rate for non-U.S. markets is projected to be 8%. [9] Group 3: Impact of New Drugs and Patient Segmentation - The market is segmented into various heterogeneous patient groups, allowing doctors to prescribe more suitable medications based on individual circumstances. This segmentation provides growth opportunities for existing products and future new products. For instance, the oral version of GLP-1, semaglutide, is expected to capture 25% of the anti-obesity market by 2030. [11] - A key variable for short-term growth in the anti-obesity drug market is the cessation of sales for compounded GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. starting May 22, 2025. An estimated 1 million U.S. patients currently using these compounded drugs are expected to transition to branded medications, providing a growth impetus for leading companies. [12]