【广发宏观团队】回看本轮消费触底

Group 1 - The current consumption is not strong, but the weakest phase has passed, with retail sales growth expected to recover gradually in 2024 and 2025 [1][2] - The low point for retail sales growth in 2023 was around June to August, with June and August showing only 2.0% and 2.1% year-on-year growth, respectively [1] - The consumer style index and new consumption composite index have increased significantly, with a rise of 25.3% and 38.4% respectively from September 2024 to May 2025 [2] Group 2 - Factors driving the current consumption recovery include the easing of household balance sheet contraction, stabilization of cash flow due to adjustments in mortgage rates, and the end of the phenomenon of early repayments [3] - Continued and expanded policy benefits are expected to stimulate more durable consumer goods sectors in 2025 [4] - Clear support for new consumption formats is evident, with rapid development in sectors like cultural tourism and senior services [5] Group 3 - The strategic focus on consumer assets was suggested last year, based on indicators showing that consumer goods price indices and core CPI had reached their lows [6] - Historical patterns indicate that price cycles often contain all necessary logic regarding volume, suggesting that understanding price positions can be more insightful than merely analyzing volume [9] Group 4 - The recent trade negotiations and tariff exemptions have positively impacted market sentiment, with global stock markets showing overall gains [10][11] - The U.S. consumer confidence index and long-term inflation expectations have shown slight improvements, indicating that consumer sentiment remains a key support factor for the economy [17] Group 5 - The recent adjustments in monetary policy and liquidity conditions suggest a stable but slightly loose liquidity environment, with the DR007 rate fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7% [20][21] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in funding availability, particularly in non-residential projects, indicating a potential slowdown in infrastructure investment [22][23] Group 6 - The upcoming Dragon Boat Festival is expected to see significant inter-regional travel, with a projected year-on-year growth of 7%-8% in travel volume [24][25] - The tourism sector is showing strong recovery, particularly in family travel and inbound tourism, with notable increases in visitor numbers and spending [26]