国泰海通 · 晨报0603｜宏观、海外策略、食饮

Macro Overview - The global economic system is undergoing a reconstruction due to changes in the trust foundation, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" primarily driven by non-economic factors such as international relations [2] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to be historical and significant, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change [2] - In the short to medium term, there are concerns about the potential further decline in the creditworthiness of the US dollar, with risks of rising real interest rates and inflation expectations [2] Domestic Macro - China's economy has significant potential in the medium to long term, but short-term demand needs to be boosted [2] - To achieve a growth target of around 5% in 2025, active policy measures are required, with expectations of continued marginal increases in macro policies, especially after July [2] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The AI industry cycle is expected to lead the Hong Kong stock market upward, similar to previous market cycles dominated by real estate, technology, and new energy [4] - The fundamentals of Hong Kong's technology sector are strong, with high capital expenditure and robust growth in cloud business revenues, indicating a favorable environment for performance acceleration [4][5] - The inflow of capital from mainland investors is expected to strengthen pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with institutional investors likely to drive future inflows [5] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on high-growth new consumption trends and a more rational approach to the liquor market [7] - The beer market is expected to recover as the peak season approaches, while the beverage sector is still in a phase of releasing single product potential [7] - The structural growth in consumer goods is evident, with a notable performance in leisure foods and improvements in the income of seasoning and dairy products [7]