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大摩:中国AI芯片自给率将达80%
半导体行业观察·2025-06-03 01:26

Core Viewpoint - China's self-sufficiency rate in AI chips is expected to exceed 80% within three years, driven by the need to overcome U.S. semiconductor export controls, which have catalyzed the strengthening of China's semiconductor ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: AI Chip Self-Sufficiency - As of last year, China's self-sufficiency rate in AI chips was only 34%, but it is projected to soar to 82% by 2027 [1]. - The external pressure from U.S. sanctions has accelerated China's efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, leading to the rapid establishment of a self-sustaining ecosystem [1]. Group 2: Talent and Strategic Investment - Approximately half of the world's AI researchers are based in China, which is a significant driver for the explosive growth of the AI sector [2]. - China is investing heavily in its AI ecosystem through substantial R&D funding and policies favoring domestic procurement, leveraging its large domestic market to support local companies [2]. Group 3: Robotics Market Potential - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow to $5 trillion by 2050, with China projected to capture 30% of the global supply due to cost competitiveness from domestic AI chip procurement [3]. - Manufacturing humanoid robots in China could reduce production costs to one-third of those using global supply chains [3]. Group 4: Ecosystem and Industry Growth - Leading companies in China's AI rise include Huawei, SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, and others, all contributing to accelerated AI innovation [3]. - By 2030, the core AI industry in China is expected to grow to 1 trillion RMB (approximately 190 trillion KRW) [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from merely acquiring high-spec semiconductor chips to effectively integrating hardware with software and systems to create value [3].